Will it warm up

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This is the Met Office Chief forecaster

There is no real sign of a let-up to the cold weather but the sleet and snow showers which fall in places today and tonight, should then ease away, leaving a good deal of dry weather for at least the first half of the Easter weekend.

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Long term after a hiatus the Met Office expect global warming to continue. Myles Allen head of the Climate Dynamics group at University of Oxford’s Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics department recently said

even if the “climate sensitivity” is as low as 2C, as some lines of evidence now suggest, we would still be looking at 4C plus by the early 22nd century.

By contrast those looking at solar factors see a very different story wmerging. Ulric Lyons commented over at Tallblokes Talkshop

We need new gas power generators within 2 years maximum. 2015 won’t be warm, and 2016 and 2017 are going to be full on LIA conditions, with hard late winters extending all the way to June.

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Both may sound alarmist but with the Jet stream taking a deep southerly route so often I hardly see warmth as the climate challenge we will face in the next decade or so.

Images via Met Office. Jan Feb Mar

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Brrrr

An impressive cold spell all the more so considering how it has lasted so long for so late in the season. The top of the bar is about average.

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It is a very rough look at March. The green line is a rough estimation of the slow overall warm up expected as the day lengthens and as the models are showing k taking the runs in their totality as of the 6z GFS.

Dinasaurs and Scientific Concensus

I regard consensus science as an extremely pernicious development that ought to be stopped cold in its tracks. Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled. Whenever you hear the consensus of scientists agrees on something or other, reach for your wallet, because you’re being had.

At this moment you may not be able to hang on to your wallet as the Carbon Tax theft begins.

Let’s be clear: the work of science has nothing whatever to do with consensus. Consensus is the business of politics. Science, on the contrary, requires only one investigator who happens to be right, which means that he or she has results that are verifiable by reference to the real world. In science consensus is irrelevant. What are relevant are reproducible results. The greatest scientists in history are great precisely because they broke with the consensus. There is no such thing as consensus science. If it’s consensus, it isn’t science. If it’s science, it isn’t consensus. Period.

Michael Crichton

March Hale Signature?

On both sides of the Atlantic the unusual cold March looks to continue. 44 years ago:

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If the forecast for the rest of March is broadly correct, taking into consideration expected temperature levels, based on the Central England Temperature (CET) measure, March is likely to end up the coldest since 1969, and one of the coldest on record. Paul Hudon BBC Weather ECMWF for Easter Monday

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I may relook at these periods but based on a lunar calender month. My last post looks at 1883 which at 130 is not far off the Hale signal of ~22 years for the solar magnetic cycle. 2013 -44 years 1969 2 Hale Cycles – 22 years 1947 3 HC – 64 years 1883 ~6 HC 1837 ~8 HC

“Blizzards began at the end of February and on the 14th March, the weather was still ‘severe’. All through March, the weather is still described as ‘severe’ both as to cold & snow…. The coldest spring (March / April / May) in the entire CET record. March, with a value of 2.3degC (anom. ~-3C) was one of the ‘top-10’ such-named months, whilst April (4.7degC/anom. ~-3.2C) was the coldest April in the entire series. May was also cold (anom. ~-1.3). The overall seasonal mean CET value was 5.6degC, or around -2.5C on the all-series value (and about 3C below the ‘modern-day’ average).

1815 ~10 HC You can figure the cold springs of 1814-16 but the eruption of Tambora throws a curveball into the mix. The signal may dilute further out but what I looked at were the periods for clues… In summary it may well prove a cold overall spring ~-1C. Warmth will come but it may not linger and may struggle to progress further North. The low systems will continue to reach us but the South East should be towards average whilst Northern Scotland may be dry. The EWP series may well be skewed upwards by the wet in more Western areas. Bar a real poke in July of heat confined mainly to Southern areas summer will be distinctly average overall but better than last year by hopefully not being as wet. There may be floods however from extreme downpours possible in the Thames Valley. I see an early brutal start to winter with frosts possible in London in September – even early. The overall winter may fade in intensity but should remain cool with snow but not a country wide event. This does not exclude a 1-2 week big freeze outside of the initial opening salvo which I see early November. Winter has shown she is not shrinking but growing and it has nothing to do with man. Be It may sound extreme but CET has been running below/on average since April. The high spikes will come but less so as time goes on.

Record March Cold?

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Craig M on February 17, 2013 at 10:38 pm
Going on 1882/3 which has been a fair guide:

cold March possibly top ten past 100yrs

I based this on solar cycle 12 some 130 years ago [charts to be added];

EWP, 8 1883(March) A ‘normal’ start to the month (first five days), but as the northerly airstream/[ex-Arctic] set in on the 5th/6th (see below), the weather turned dramatically colder. There were frequent severe frosts, with snow & hail reported throughout the month accompanied by strong gales (occasional further severe gales/see below, especially around the 10th/11th). Eventually, this March, with a CET value of 1.9degC (anomaly ~ -3C) turned out to be in the ‘top 5’ coldest such-named months in the series (from 1659).6th: Northerly gales (F9, isolated F10 / squally) northern half of the British Isles. 23 fishing smacks from Hull were lost, with 135 crew-members dead. Over 70 other vessels were damaged. There was also a severe snowstorm over parts of Scotland (presumably north & east) as the cold air set in. Booty

Another cold March occured 66 years ago in the winter of 1947. [charts to be added]

This is what the ECMWF has for the week ahead. No doubt it will change as will the current Met Office warnings.

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The AO tanked
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The Little Ice Age came on in a decade or so.

Scientists undecided on computers

When the Supreme Court struck down a California law regulating the sale of “violent” videogames to minors, they said the scientific evidence damning such games was, at best, “unpersuasive.” And they’re probably right: if a link
between violent games and aggression does exist, it’s still debatable how strongly they correlate. Even talking to scientists who have studied this doesn’t clear up what’s actually going on here, and that’s largely due to external pressures. The media is ready to latch on to any study that indicates a conclusion, and media attention can often turn into grant money for research–and if there’s anything we don’t want mixing, it’s science with media and money.

We Know Nothing About The Correlation Between Videogames And Violence