Will it warm up

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This is the Met Office Chief forecaster

There is no real sign of a let-up to the cold weather but the sleet and snow showers which fall in places today and tonight, should then ease away, leaving a good deal of dry weather for at least the first half of the Easter weekend.

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Long term after a hiatus the Met Office expect global warming to continue. Myles Allen head of the Climate Dynamics group at University of Oxford’s Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics department recently said

even if the “climate sensitivity” is as low as 2C, as some lines of evidence now suggest, we would still be looking at 4C plus by the early 22nd century.

By contrast those looking at solar factors see a very different story wmerging. Ulric Lyons commented over at Tallblokes Talkshop

We need new gas power generators within 2 years maximum. 2015 won’t be warm, and 2016 and 2017 are going to be full on LIA conditions, with hard late winters extending all the way to June.

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Both may sound alarmist but with the Jet stream taking a deep southerly route so often I hardly see warmth as the climate challenge we will face in the next decade or so.

Images via Met Office. Jan Feb Mar

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