1883 vs 2013

Found a comment I’d lost track of. A snippet first then the comment from 1 Jan in full.

Analogues of past hale cycles (i.e. ’47 ’69 ’91) suggest to me a back loaded winter lasting until equinox. 1883 had a cold March in CET and a cold March is ‘overdue’ not that it means anything but who knows? The MWW and SSW tagged to hit the polar vortex this month hint at the possibility emerging.

Craig M on January 1, 2013 at 5:38 pm

Piers Corbyn said of SC24 a few days back“Low solar cycles generally are longer than strong ones so even though some are saying the peak of 24 may have now passed it is reasonable to expect another (low) peak in this cycle – maybe around turn of 2013-14.”

http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=511&c=5

I recall Leif S expects a second peak and the levels are within his predictions lol. I’ve also enjoyed Vuk’s jousting with our esteemed solar specialist who believes knowing just 5% deserves a round of applause and back slapping.

Gray interesting you pulled up

1881.5 54.3
1882.5 59.7
1883.5 63.7

That period SC14 is my pet interest. I previously commented on CET/EWP in relation to the Venus transit although my interest was initially based on looking back at Hale cycles. The 130yr diff would be 65 x2. I started looking at this period as precipitation records were standardised around then although the exact date eludes me I read it from Phillip Eden (MetOffice EWP is from 1910). He also commented in the same book that a dry patch in early spring is often averaged out soon afterwards – something I’ve observed in my own lifetime and why I had no confidence in the predicted drought.

From Booty“A notably wet year by the EWP series – in the ‘top-10′ by that measure with a total of 1146 mm/~125% LTA. However, in the Kew Observatory record, the anomaly for the whole year was just 107%, with only four months having above average rainfall. This suggests that the southeastern counties of England fared rather better than elsewhere.”

http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1850_1899.htm

Now look at the Met Office map for 2012 RAINFALL ANOMALY 1 JAN TO 26 DEC

A similar relatively average pocket/tongue/triangle exists over the SE, nothing like the strip of wet sitting sw-ne. The values for the low countries would be interesting to compare. I’m not saying Venus is causing these cycles but rather the Transits fits/proxies with other cycles and seem to be coming into phase again. Again from Booty

“After the wet summer…and a brief ‘average’ respite in September 1882, the rains returned with a vengeance in October (EWP 163 mm/~180% LTA / in the ‘top-10′ of such-named wettest months), and marked the start of a significantly wetter-than-average period lasting until February 1883. The total for autumn (SON) was 370 mm (~140%) & that for winter (DJF) was 332 mm (~130%). Flooding was reported nation-wide, and farmers in particular had a bad time, both in trying to rescue that year’s ripe crops from the wet summer/autumn weather and trying to plant crops ready for 1883.”

Analogues of past hale cycles (i.e. ’47 ’69 ’91) suggest to me a back loaded winter lasting until equinox. 1883 had a cold March in CET and a cold March is ‘overdue’ not that it means anything but who knows? The MWW and SSW tagged to hit the polar vortex this month hint at the possibility emerging.

As a final thought 1883 + 1816 had well known volcanic eruptions could we have one this year? The two large Indonesian quakes in 2012 could be a precursor/trigger for an eruption. Activity in that area appears to be more active of late. Of note 1817 is also a period when there was melting of the N polar regions as noted by the admiralty. Not sure how my thoughts fit with others but to me the above chimes with what Stephen Wilde has said of jetstream shifts and movement of the strato/tropobands in relation to solar/planetary cycles.Interesting times

As an after thought I did also think of Kamchatkan Peninsula which has shown an uptick as has most of the ring of fire

http://beforeitsnews.com/earthquakes/2013/01/2012-in-review-volcanoes-2447602.html

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