DECC solar variations may…cause changes to the frequency of cold winter weather over the UK and Northern Europe

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Nicholas Harrison posted this comment over at Weather Action,  which I reproduce in full [my emphasis and formatting]

I’ve emailed the Dept of Energy and CC since Ed Davey’s outburst and kept digging at them because of the rubbish they’ve sent me. I’ve forwarded mails on to Piers, but he’s a busy man, so I’m posting the latest reply here, in the hope that others can take up against what the Gov are saying.

Thank you for your email to my colleague, Daniel McHugh, about Edward Davey’s speech on climate change. I have been asked to reply. Let me assure you that the Secretary of State was not making a point about free speech, but about the importance of reporting facts.

It is the Governments view that there is an overwhelming scientific consensus that human emissions of greenhouse gases since the industrial revolution are very likely responsible for most of the global surface warming observed over recent decades. There is no longer any serious doubt on this point. There are of course uncertainties about exactly how much further warming we will see in coming decades, but ‘business emissions are likely to lead to significant average global temperature rises. And there may be ‘tipping points’, i.e. points of no return or abrupt changes in the climate system. Global average temperature has not increased significantly since around 1998; however, periods of little or no warming should be expected due to both natural climate variability and other drivers (such as small variations in solar output), which can temporarily mask long term warming from greenhouse gas emissions. Other such 15-year long periods of little or no warming have occurred in the record since 1850.

Solar activity and its effects on global and regional temperatures are an active area of research, including in the DECC and Defra co-funded Climate Programme at the Met Office Hadley Centre. It is difficult to predict future solar activity reliably but a recent study[1] suggests there is only a small chance of Maunder Minimum conditions returning within the next 50 years. If it did though global temperatures would likely be depressed by at most 0.13o (and by no more than 0.69oC even if highly unlikely and extreme changes to solar brightness are assumed[2]). This compares to global warming projections of +2.5oC or more by the end of the century owing to continued human greenhouse gas emissions. However, it is possible that small solar variations may be amplified on regional scales and for example, cause changes to the frequency of cold winter weather over the UK and Northern Europe, albeit within a generally warming global climate. This possibility is also being actively researched.

The UK is committed to delivering ambitious emission reductions, under the 2008 Climate Change Act there are legally binding targets to achieve this. To date our emissions have fallen 23% since 1990 if you include emissions trading (2010 final figures), the latest Government projections suggest the UK is on track to meet its first three legislated carbon budgets with current pl policies. Investing now in building a diverse, low carbon and efficient energy mix will protect consumers from long term international fuel price volatility resulting in more stable and lower bills than they would have been in the absence of these policies. Investing in low carbon energy infrastructure is critical to tackling climate change and keeping us on a cost effective pathway to meet our legally binding carbon targets.

Yours sincerely,

Darwin McIntosh

Darwin McIntosh | CorrespondenceDepartment

Department of Energy and Climate Change.

Please help educate these people before it is too late.

Global Cooling Causes More Extreme Weather–World Meteorological Organisation 1975

So sad when you realise we have wasted and hidden nearly 40 years of research. Brilliant find Paul. Thanks.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

 

ScreenHunter_433 May. 22 17.53

http://www.sciencenews.org/view/access/id/37739/description/CHILLING_POSSIBILITIES

 

 

In an interview with Science News in 1975, C C Wallen, Head of the Special Environmental Applications Division of the World Meteorological Organization, had this to say about the consequences of the cooling trend since 1940:-

 

The principal weather change likely to accompany the cooling trend is increased variability-alternating extremes of temperature and precipitation in any given area-which would almost certainly lower average crop yields.

 

During cooler climatic periods the high-altitude winds are broken up into irregular cells by weaker and more plentiful pressure centers, causing formation of a "meridional circulation" pattern. These small, weak cells may stagnate over vast areas for many months, bringing unseasonably cold weather on one side and unseasonably warm weather on the other. Droughts and floods become more frequent and may alternate season to season, as they did last year in India. Thus, while the…

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OFGEM To Warn Of Blackouts

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

 

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/10136903/Energy-regulator-to-warn-over-blackouts.html

 

According to the Telegraph:-

 

The regulator is expected to publish electricity supply and demand forecasts within weeks, showing that spare capacity has fallen as more gas-fired plants have been mothballed. It is likely to reiterate warnings that even if blackouts are avoided, power prices will rise steeply.

Britain’s spare power margin will be so narrow by the winters of 2014-15 and 2015-16 that unexpected events such as more plant closures, nuclear reactor outages or unusually cold weather could drive household electricity bills up by as much as 20pc, Peter Atherton, an analyst at Liberum Capital, has warned.

Last year, Ofgem’s assessment showed that margins would fall from 14pc to 4pc by mid-decade and the risk of power cuts would increase from near-zero in 2012 to one-in-12 by 2015 and one-in-two if demand was very high.

   

OFGEM have every right to be concerned…

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How Environmental Organizations Are Destroying The Environment

Watts Up With That?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

The Washington Post reports:

During an April visit to the San Francisco home of billionaire and environmental activist Tom Steyer, who created a political action committee in March to target lawmakers supporting the Keystone pipeline, Obama noted that the issue of climate change “is near and dear” to Steyer and his wife, Kat Taylor.

“But — and I mentioned this to Tom and Kat and a few folks right before I came out here — the politics of this are tough,” Obama added, according to a White House transcript. “Because if you haven’t seen a raise in a decade; if your house is still $25,000, $30,000 underwater . . . you may be concerned about the temperature of the planet, but it’s probably not rising to your number one concern. And if people think, well, that’s shortsighted, that’s what happens when you’re struggling to get…

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Met Office calling on “Anthropogenic aerosol forcing”

Smelled a bit when I read the churnalists reports. Ryan Maue’s hurricane/ts charts also counter the supposed increase. My big pondering is hasn’t our lovely clean air been counteracted by India and China (and many others) – for the same period? Presume this paper is another attempt at a get out of jail card for their Med climate predictions going bust?
Ryan M’s charts https://craigm350.wordpress.com/2013/06/25/man-made-hurricanes/

Tallbloke's Talkshop

It’s a news release from today (but was embargoed earlier, fed to press) so here it is

June 2013 – New research from the Met Office has raised the possibility that man-made aerosols, industrial pollution, may have impacted the number of Atlantic hurricanes.

The paper, published in Nature Geoscience today, suggests aerosols may have suppressed the number of Atlantic hurricanes over the 20th Century and even controlled the decade-to-decade changes in the number of hurricanes.

Says Nature Geoscience Letters.

Anthropogenic aerosol forcing of Atlantic tropical storms
N. J. Dunstone, D. M. Smith, B. B. B. Booth, L. Hermanson & R. Eade

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1854.html

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Peer Evil – the rotten business model of modern science

Watts Up With That?

Guest essay by Abzats.

The most exciting period in science was, arguably, 1895-1945. It was marked by discoveries that changed the foundations of modern science: X-rays, quantum mechanics, superconductivity, relativity theory and nuclear energy. Then, compare this with the next 50 years in science. Incomparable. Nothing of that scale or impact. Yes, technology has advanced, but fundamental science – has come to a crawl. Have you ever wondered why? What changed as the 20th century grew older? Among other things, research budgets and the number of PhDs increased exponentially. This cannot be bad.

Well, it can. All depends on the rules of the game. And they have changed. The change went largely unnoticed by the general public. In this article I will try to bring everyone up to speed. I will explain to non-scientists the “business model” of modern science. People may want to know. After all, scientists are burning…

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Man Made Hurricanes?

From the Telegraph:

Efforts to improve the quality of our air could be causing more hurricanes as a side effect, according to a new study.Researchers from the Met Office established a direct link between levels of industrial pollution and the frequency of hurricanes in the North Atlantic.
For much of the 20th century, sooty pollution in the atmosphere has made conditions unfavourable for the storms, causing their numbers to drop.

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Global Hurricane Frequency – 1978 to Present, Ryan N. Maue PhD

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Global Tropical Cyclone Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) – 1971 to Present

Professor Robert Pielke:

The siren song of linking disasters to human-caused climate change exerts a strong pull for activists in all settings, but might be countered by the widespread and judicious use of the disaster and climate change bullshit button.

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CRU 2006 : Endless Barbecue Summers

Real Science

Global Warming Likely Causing More Heat Waves, Scientists Say
John Roach

for National Geographic News
August 1, 2006

Scientists at the University of Oxford in England and the Hadley Centre for Climate Research and Prediction in Exeter, England, recently concluded that human-induced global warming has increased the odds by a factor of around six that Europe will see summer heat waves as extreme as that of 2003.

Global Warming Likely Causing More Heat Waves, Scientists Say

Now they say the exact opposite

ScreenHunter_291 Jun. 24 09.49

The shape of British summers to come? | Science | The Guardian

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UK Weather Report–Spring 2013

Thanks Paul. Although the MetO have forgotten average UK weather, there are quite a few memories still out there of the distinctly non Mediterranean nature of the average British summer.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

 

The full details have now been released by the Met Office for May, so we can take a look at the Spring summary.

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