ENSO Trends


By Paul Homewood


In the news this week has been a paper by Yu Kosaka and Shang-Ping Xie, “ Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling”.

The paper has been well covered by WUWT, and essentially claims that the recent halt in global warming has been due to natural factors. As the abstract quotes:-


Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Niña-like decadal cooling. Although similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.


Most are aware, but just to recap, global temperatures tend to rise during El Nino periods, and drop with La Nina conditions. Although these events can alternate from year to year, over the longer term there are periods when one or the other dominate, as can…

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Met Office provisional summer weather report for UK

Thanks Tim.

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Short stalk wheat ready for harvest 27th Aug 2013 at 725 ft asl central southern England. 51.352847° -1.472144° Photo (c)2013 Tim Channon
Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License.

The UK Met Office released a “provisional” report Friday evening (30th Aug 2013), ie. before the weekend. The media will wait for finals, no other source for Met Office statements.

30 August 2013 – Provisional Met Office statistics for this summer (June, July and August) show that this year has seen the warmest, driest and sunniest summer since 2006.

Nothing is going to change, still strikes me as peculiar and especially after asking the press office when a prior provisional was going to be formalised: answer, we won’t.

The web press release follows: –

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Missing Heat Sinks Into The Oceans – Making Them Cool Down

Real Science

The Guardian has solved several mysteries. Trenberth’s missing heat sinking into the oceans is causing the oceans to cool,  and WMO’s accelerated warming is actually a pause in warming.

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Cooling Pacific has dampened global warming, research shows | Environment | theguardian.com

In other news :

War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.

George Orwell – 1984

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BBC is an offensive lying bully


Over breakfast heard that the life scientific were covering the effect of the sun on the atmosphere. Given that there had been a move toward real science in the BBC, I was hoping for a … perhaps not entirely level playing field assessment of the science, but at least covering all the basis – so an interesting program to listen to whilst I did some work.

Instead, within a few seconds out came the intentional offence of climate change “denier”.

How many times do we sceptics have to point out that we do not deny climate change nor do we deny the 1C warming expected from doubling CO2. We just deny that the idiots in the IPCC have any basis for all their daft claims like “up to 6C rise in temperature” (when the science says the greenhouse effect of doubling CO2 will only caused 1C) 60m rise in sea…

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Fabricating Climate Doom – Part 3: Extreme Weather Extinctions Enron Style

Watts Up With That?

Guest essay by Jim Steele, Director emeritus Sierra Nevada Field Campus, San Francisco State University

An Illusion of Extreme Climate Disruption

“While clearing larvae were starving in response to destruction of their hosts, survival in the outcrop was higher than previously recorded: an estimated 80% of larval groups survived.” 1  – C. D. Thomas, University of Leeds, United Kingdom

In Part 1, I documented how Camille Parmesan’s 1996 paper (heralded as proof that global warming was forcing butterflies northward and upward) had misread landscape change for climate change, how she failed to publish that “extinct” populations had now recovered and refused to provide the data to permit replication of her iconic paper. In Part 2, I documented how Parmesan hijacked the conservation success story of the Large Blue and the detailed conservation science of Jeremy Thomas in order to again blame global warming for expanding the range of endangered…

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New York Times Predicts That There Will Be More Hurricanes

Real Science

The US has been hit by 287 hurricanes since 1850, and the geniuses at the New York Times predict that Sandy will not be the last one.

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The Next Hurricane, and the Next – NYTimes.com

The New York Times advocates invoking economy wrecking measures, in order to make the climate like it was in the year 1900.

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15 Sep 1900 – The Texas Hurricane. OVER 2,000 CORPSES DISPOSED…

Or perhaps 1821

Experts say it’s only a matter of time before a major hurricane strikes New York City. When it comes, you may want to have your evacuation plan nearby. If not, meet the fishes.

In 1821, stunned colonial New Yorkers recorded sea levels rising as fast as 13 feet in a single hour at the Battery. The East River and Hudson Rivers merged over Lower Manhattan all the way to Canal Street. According to Coch, the fact that the 1821…

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29th Daily Record of Year for Antarctic Sea Ice Extent (6th in a row)

sunshine hours

August 24 (Day 236) saw the 29th Daily Record of the Year for Antarctic Sea Ice Extent. This was the 6th record in a row.

Antarctic Sea Ice Extent is 18.97784 million sq km. The earliest the Antarctic reached 19 million sql km was in 2006 when it happened on day 241.

The most days over 19 million sq km was in 2006 and 2012 when there were 30 days each.

Click graph for bigger. Data is here.


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NSIDC Forgot To Mention This

Real Science

NSIDC wants you to believe that Arctic ice has been steadily decreasing due to man-made CO2, and was 12% below the mean at the end of July.

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N_07_plot.png (420×240)

What they don’t want you to think about is that in the decade prior to 1975, Arctic ice expanded by 12% and was blamed for every imaginable kind of bad weather.

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Youngstown Vindicator – Google News Archive Search

h/t to John B., M.D.

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