How the IPCC forgot to mention the pause

Climate Etc.

by Judith Curry

[Marotzke] attributed the oversight to a tendency of each group working on each of the 14 chapters to rely on some other chapter to deal with the issue. And anyone who was thinking about it at all thought some other chapter should handle the issue. – CS Monitor

View original post 785 more words

Hide The Decline

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

 

In an attempt to downplay the recent halt in global warming, the IPCC have claimed in their Summary for Policymakers that:

 

As one example, the rate of warming over the past 15 years (1998–2012; 0.05  °C per decade), which begins with a strong El Niño, is smaller than the rate calculated since 1951 (1951–2012; 0.12 °C per  decade.)

  

Simply translated, this means that warming has slowed down to just under half what it was before. This message has been quickly picked up by the media, which, of course, was the main intention.

The dreadful Geoffrey Lean comments in the Telegraph:

 

The IPCC did, however, address a much more substantial sceptical point, that the temperature increase at the Earth’s surface has slowed down since 1998 to about 40 per cent of its average rate since 1951 – something it accepts it didn’t predict. One…

View original post 554 more words

Met Excuses Get Ever Thinner.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

 

image

http://web.archive.org/web/20101229165808/http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/policymakers/policy/slowdown.html

 

 

Back in 2010, the Met Office had this to say about the halt in global warming.

 

Recent Met Office research investigated how often decades with a stable or even negative warming trend appeared in computer-modelled climate change simulations.

Jeff Knight, lead author on the research, says: “We found one in every eight decades has near-zero or negative global temperature trends in simulations. Given that we have seen fairly consistent warming since the 1970s, the odds of one in eight suggest the observed slowdown was due to happen.”

  

I wonder what the odds are for 17 years of no warming? I also wonder how much longer they will trot out the same excuse?

 

Footnote

In the same report, they forecast:

 

Our decadal forecast predicts an end to this period of relative stability after 2010. We project at least half of…

View original post 58 more words