Daily Express Forecast “Storm Of Century” – ( A Week After Forecasting Huge Freeze!)

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

 

image

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/438384/Bad-storms-You-ve-seen-nothing-yet-as-90mph-gales-and-rain-are-set-to-lash-Britain

 

The Daily Express are forecasting that the “Storm of the Century” will hit Britain in the next week. This time, the nonsense comes from Jonathan Powell of Vantage Weather Services.

 

Jonathan Powell, forecaster for V­antage Weather Services, warned that Britain could be facing the “storm of the century” next week. He said Atlantic low pressure systems lined up to roll in unchecked could trigger more tornadoes around the UK.

He said: “If you thought it was bad now you’ve seen nothing yet. There is more wind and rain this week but on Sunday and into the beginning of next week it is going to hit with full force. “A flow of Atlantic systems will bring storm-force gusts, torrential downpours and even more tornadoes in the most unexpected places.

“Next Sunday is looking very severe, and all signs are pointing to what could be…

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Lack of Data For All Phases of Water Guarantees Failed IPCC Projections

Watts Up With That?

Guest essay by Dr. Tim Ball

Lack of temperature data is a problem, but measures of water and precipitation are much worse. Temperature changes, especially cooling, are important to a degree over the long term. Precipitation changes are much more important for short, medium and long periods. Droughts are much more devastating to flora, fauna and the human condition. Irrigation was one of the earliest technologies developed 9000 years ago to offset droughts in the Fertile Crescent, triggered by onset of Holocene warming.

McKitrick et al. and others identified the problems of determining global temperature. Instruments changed over time, but continuous records are limited to the accuracy of early measures ±0.5°C. There are the problems of the recording sites as Anthony Watt’s identified. Only 7.8 percent of the US record is accurate to less than 1°C. What does that say about the rest of the world?

Measuring precipitation accurately is…

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Nick Brown Smelled BS

A long read but worth the time for a *very illuminating* window into the world of academic backslapping. Scientists are, after all, human and can he as pig headed as the rest of us. When any of us are lauded and upheld the last thing we want is someone telling us our theory, our life work, our livelyhood is a ‘croc of shit.’ We can chose humility and accept being wrong is a part of learning. Or we can just call everyone who disagrees #deniers.

mann-crockey-stick

Josh on form

One of the insights in the climategate emails was perhaps how poisonous Michael Mann’s involvement was, for the niche area of the paleo science community (ego due to IPCC and Hockey Stick)? This tweet from earlier this morning (now deleted, only a text version survives -Anthony) shows the immediate labeling of “denier” for another scientist who disagrees with his paleo work.Michael E. Mann ‏@MichaelEMannCloset #climatechange #denier Rob Wilson, comes out of the closet big time: http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2013/10/21/wilson-on-millennial-temperature-reconstructions.html … #BadScience #DisingenuousBehavior

Anthony also points out a tweet that would have led to Indignant moral outrage had a Republican said it. We really do need to move beyond the traditional left/right paradigm in the climate debate.

Full story: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/21/paleoscientist-manns-recent-work-was-a-crock-of-xxxx/

Climate Audit

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Support for Stop the Energy Swindle

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

Guest post by Jonathan Drake

 

Having signed an online e-petition, “Stop the Energy Swindle” campaign by Taxpayers’ Alliance, I received a response from my MP in which she stated:

 

“However, it is important to note that recent increases in energy bills have mainly been as a result of rising international prices for fossil fuels and not climate change policies. Around 60 per cent of the increase in household energy bills between 2010 and 2012 was as a result of this.”

 

So, as I often do, I went to check the facts – I have an inherent distrust of politicians and their ilk,especially when they quote percentages. Needless to say, the quoted figure presents government policy in a good light. But what is the reality?

Why was the year 2010 chosen? 2012 seems reasonable since data for 2013 will obviously not be available for time. But surely…

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The Sea Level Error Fraud

Real Science

Prior to 2010, the University of Colorado prominently displayed an error map right below their satellite sea level map, like the one below taken off the Internet archive.

ScreenHunter_1679 Oct. 20 05.24

Global mean sea level results

They no longer include the error map

ScreenHunter_1681 Oct. 20 05.44

Map of Sea Level Trends | CU Sea Level Research Group

The animation below shows their little problem. It alternates between the blue error map, and their current trend map. In their claimed high sea level rise areas, the error is almost as big as the trend – in some places it is greater than the trend.

SatelliteSeaLevelvsError

To make matters worse, the claimed global trend of 3 mm/year is heavily weighted by the large numbers – which are the least reliable. Satellite sea level is the basis for alarmists fraudulent claims that sea level rise rates have increased since 1992, something which tide gauges show no evidence of.

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Antarctic Sea Ice Didn’t Get The Memo That It Was Supposed To Melt

Watts Up With That?

Image Credit: Cryosphere Today – University of Illinois – Polar Research Group

By WUWT Regular Just The Facts

Per the graph above, Antarctic Sea Ice Extent has remained above the 1981 – 2010 “normal” range for much of the last three months and the current positive Antarctic Sea Ice Extent anomaly appears quite large for a planet supposedly on the verge of Dangerous Warming.

Furthermore, in 2013 we had the third most expansive Southern Sea Ice Area measured to date;

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MET Throws Hissy Fit Over Winter Temprature Predictions

I would predict the opposite of an organisation with it’s head stuck in the sand.

sunshine hours

“We saw similar headlines last year and instead winter 12/13 ended up being only the 43rd coldest on record with an average temperature of 3.3C and flooding until the turn of the year.”

Technically correct, but HADCET March 2013 was the 11th coldest March since 1659.

December 2013 was 3.3C colder than the warmest December.  January 2013 was 4C colder than the warmest January . And February 2013 was 4.7C colder than the warmest February.

No sign of global warming in HADCET for the winter months.

“While we have seen a return to more normal, cooler temperatures for this time of year, this is no indication of what we can expect over the next four months with regards to temperatures ”

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/10/12/winter-forecasting-responding-to-the-headlines/

Lets look at the last 15 years of HADCET for each month. What would you predict? 

HADCET  Last 15 Years

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Unreliable research: Trouble at the lab | The Economist

Academic scientists readily acknowledge that they often get things wrong. But they also hold fast to the idea that these errors get corrected over time as other scientists try to take the work further. Evidence that many more dodgy results are published than are subsequently corrected or withdrawn calls that much-vaunted capacity for self-correction into question. There are errors in a lot more of the scientific papers being published, written about and acted on than anyone would normally suppose, or like to think….Models which can be “tuned” in many different ways give researchers more scope to perceive a pattern where none exists.According to some estimates, three-quarters of published scientific papers in the field of machine learning are bunk because of this “overfitting”, says Sandy Pentland, a computer scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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