The Carbon Lie by Ommission or the Elephant in the Room

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Water Is Replacing Climate As The Next UN Environmental Resource Scare

Watts Up With That?

Guest essay by Dr. Tim Ball

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed and hence clamorous to be led to safety by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.
H.L.Mencken

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) failed to prove human CO2 is causing global warming as evidenced by their incorrect projections. Their hypothesis said global temperature would rise as CO2 levels increased. It hasn’t for 15+ years. It doesn’t matter where the heat went, their hypothesis that human CO2 is driving temperature and climate is disproved. The null hypothesis that it isn’t CO2, which they ignore, is proved.

CO2 was the premeditated IPCC target because it was the exhaust of industrialized developed nations. Maurice Strong said those nations were the problem for the planet and it’s our responsibility to get rid of them? Show their exhaust is causing…

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Solar activity lower in early-mid 1800’s: Strengthens case for Solar influence on climate

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Here’s a new paper which looks at the group and Wolff sunspot numbers in the mid C19th. The authors find the Wolff sunspot numbers (WSN) prior to 1848 are too high, and need reducing 20%. This brings the Wolff sunspot number more into line with Group Sunspot Number (GSN). The full paper is available (for a short time) directly from A&A here (free signup required).

Inconsistency of the Wolf sunspot number series around 1848

Raisa Leussu1,2, Ilya G. Usoskin1,2, Rainer Arlt3 and Kalevi Mursula1

1 Department of Physics, PO Box 3000, University of Oulu, 90014 Oulu, Finland
e-mail: Ilya.Usoskin@oulu.fi
2 Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory (Oulu unit), University of Oulu, 90014 Oulu, Finland
3 Leibniz Institute for Astrophysics Potsdam, An der Sternwarte 16, 14482 Potsdam, Germany

Received: 26 July 2013
Accepted: 23 September 2013

Abstract

Aims. Sunspot numbers form a benchmark series in many studies, but may still contain inhomogeneities and inconsistencies…

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Climate Hypocrisy

In 2010 I was asked to review a special IPCC report on renewable energy. I noted many errors and in the end someone from Greenpeace edited a main part of the summary of the report. A Greenpeace scenario, claiming that in 2050 we can produce 80 percent of our energy with renewables was presented as one of the major conclusions. The approach was not very scientific and I started wondering how other IPCC reports were being made.I found out that one third of the core writing team of the Summary for Policymakers in 2007 had connections with Greenpeace and WWF. Now I don’t claim this proves the report is false, but suppose that people found out that IPCC summary reports were written by people with connections to Exxon or Shell, would that be acceptable?

http://www.thegwpf.org/fritz-vahrenholt-qthe-sun-is-giving-us-time-to-come-up-with-smarter-policies/

Weather Thoughts Late 2013 into 2014

Just putting my thoughts ‘out there’. [I thought I’d posted this a couple of weeks back but obviously not]. Not coherent by any means but will tidy up later….

Using 1883 (which i used for the v cold Mar prediction) I expect a big South focused storm later this month. From memory we have been lucky the past few seasons as most storms pass N or S into France. Overdue? I’d say so but no 1987 hurricaine.
Much is based on how this year has panned out and for reasons I can’t entirely recall 2010 has propped up a few times in my endeavours.

Whilst the resemblance to 2010 is there…it won’t be a repeat! So what follows is the two trains of thinking…

Winter I am caught in two minds as I see two themes/cold phases… like 2013 just focused earlier than the late winter this year (JFM). I’d say last week Nov, roughly between New & Full Moon is the first phase.

I expect an early freeze like 2010-late Nov-but not as deep and gone in 2-3 wks followed in mid Jan by another blast lasting 2-3wks again easing eventually into early feb. The change periods to milder weather offer big snow potential but maybe a leading edge convergence scenario.

There will be mild winters ahead but 2012 was our ‘mild’ winter (cold was SE focused & short lived in an avg Feb CET of -0.1C)

Other elements to look out for;

A few analogues I have used hint at a white Christmas and I am leaning to this as time progresses as it keeps popping up. I see this created by a cold high of polar air sat over the UK (extended from Scandinavia) which is undercut by a powerful low from the Bay of Biscay. The jetstream will be moving North. The low will pull in warm Atlantic moisture before weakening but eroding the lower extension of the Scandinavian high. A wet and windy New Year would follow but I expect the high will rebuild. Scotland could well have 1-2 months in the top ten CET coldest months.

In the past few winters it has been quite cloudy which kept nighttime temperatures up. This year has been blessed with far more sunny weather and I expect that to continue until spring. With this in mind it leads to the possibility of some very cold temperatures in January especially, most likely towards the ~21st.

Possiblity of v. Low pressure in Jan (>950mb). A wet year in 2014 ahead? but as part of a ‘drier’ regime for the S/SE.

These are just my thoughts and time will tell.

Russian Scientists Forecast Colder Climate

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

 

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http://rbth.co.uk/news/2013/10/14/global_warming_over_in_central_asia_cooler_period_ahead_-_scientists_30786.html

 

Studies of the bottom sediments in lakes in Siberia, Kazakhstan and Mongolia testify to the forthcoming cooler period in Central Asia, senior researcher of the Russian Academy of Sciences Siberian branch’s V.S. Sobolev Institute of Geology and Mineralogy Andrei Daryin said.

"We think temperatures in South Siberia stopped climbing in 2010-2011 and a decline is about to start," Daryin told reporters on Monday.

 Russia launches Year of the Environment

More: Russia launches Year of the Environment

In his opinion, regional temperature measurements supported the prognosis.

The ten-year survey covered a historical period of approximately 3,000 years, the expert said. Synchrotronic analysis revealed bottom sediment changes of practically every season.

"We are working in the seasonal dimensions: spring, summer, fall," Daryin said.

Microelements found in the sediment reflect corresponding climatic conditions: the thickness of snow, rainfall, temperatures, lake salinity, which depends on the thickness of the ice shield, and so…

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