Met Office Underestimate UK Storm


There is an argument that too many and too broad warnings desensitise the public. However a yellow warning is just that – a warning to be aware. Yes, the weather can be hit or miss, often over a distance of a few miles, but at least you are prepared. Knowledge is power. Expressing uncertainty in the forecast models is not an admission of weakness, it’s useful guidance* – although clearly it is not in the Met Office’s interests to show any weakness when their long term forecasts include pushing a social engineering experiment on the British public.
Many areas highlighted in the following BBC report were not under any warning.

Electricity North West said 2,500 homes in parts of Cumbria and Lancashire are without power due to wind damage to overhead lines.The worst damage is in west Cumbria around Seaton and Workington. Power has been restored to almost 900 homes in Aberdulais in the Neath Valley after a main electrical cable came down. West Midlands Ambulance Service said the incident in Warwickshire happened on the A45 between Stretton-on-Dunsmore and Rugby at about 18:00 on Wednesday.
A spokeswoman said: “The large tree had fallen onto a car, travelling on the A45, and had smashed the windscreen. The driver and the rear seat passenger, both men in their 40s and 50s, were said to be ‘walking wounded’ and had suffered minor injuries.” The front seat passenger, a 19-year-old man, sustained face and head injuries as well as suspected chest injuries.” The man was taken to University Hospital Coventry and Warwickshire. The driver of the car was also taken to the same hospital as a precaution.”
The Championship football match between Sheffield Wednesday and Wigan at Hillsborough was abandoned early in the second-half due to a waterlogged pitch. The [sic] was also a delay in the Capital One Cup quarter-final between Stoke City and Manchester United because of a heavy hail storm.

Clearly an extended yellow warning was needed.
*** ***
The American warnings, here taken from seem more far extensive and far more complex. I am not sure how useful or accurate they are in practice.



The British public are not imbeciles. Personally I quite like the approach taken by accuweather in their threat maps

Maybe if the Met office stopped wasting their time and money on extreme climate scenarios – based upon a dubious theory – in the far distant future they could get down to the bread and butter of forecasting the here and now.

if the Met Office were a secondary school, it would be subject to special measures and intensive monitoring. Instead its directors shower praise on themselves. ‘Our successes during the past year form a strong base from which we can go forward,’ they write in their annual report. Say it often enough, and people will believe you.

Rupert Darwall, Forecast failure: how the Met Office lost touch with reality
Ideology has corrupted a valuable British institution

That’s the argument of propagandists not scientists.
* There is an interesting case from 1984,  Honour Brown et al. vs. U.S. that highlights why forecast uncertainty should be expressed.


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