No Solar Factors

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Note the pressure listed is now 947 millibars
Analysis Fax Chart 18z Sunday 4th 2014

Thankfully the low now engaging the British Isles is not intensifying or deepening, although as Piers Corbyn has said it will still be

VERY BIG and BAD rather than very very bad

He goes on to explain

In all the previous major storms October onwards this year WeatherAction correctly warned that the MetOffice were underestimating the top wind gusts – because our WeatherAction solar-based Top Red (R5, R4) Factors were operating. In THIS case although it is a very large system our top red ‘enhancement’ factors are not operating so although huge and dangerous waves are expected it will probably not have the local wind and hail ferocity of the NY+2, Jan3 storm.  Met Office top wind warnings therefore as 1800 Jan 5 are probably accurate or OVERESTIMATES”

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This screenshot was sourced at 1828 hrs on 5th January 2014

This is how the Met Office see the progress of the depression with an reading of 962 mb as it crosses North of Scotland over the next 36 hours

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Below I look at how #Christine appears to, thankfully, be weakening. Please note whilst this storm may not be as severe as some of the systems that have gone before the accumulated weakening to structures, the storm surge, the saturated ground and swollen rivers mean this storm is still very dangerous.

Before I use Met Office faxes here’s the Jetstream which looks to be loosing intensity (white areas within the grey) which I noted in an earlier post.

Jetstream

12z 3rd January 2014

12z 4th January 2014

12z 5th January 2014

Lack of solar factors

all images from SpaceWeather

  • There are no coronal holes in an earth facing position (a CH is cresting the North West limb and a dark coronal feature is near centre disc).

coronalhole_sdo_200

  • Solar wind has dropped from ~600 to ~400 km/sec

Mag_swe_3d

  • The planetary K index is falling quiet

Kp050114_3d

  • Solar  behemoth sunspot 1944, which  “has a ‘beta-gamma-delta’ magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares” is still approaching, however due to its instability it does bear watching over the next few days.
sunrise_strip

AR1944 (lower left of solar disc)  seen from Higashinada-ku, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan:
Image: Daisuke Tomiyasu

The Past 24 Hours

This is how the low has progressed with the central pressure increasing from 935 mb on Saturday to 947 mb (see top of this post). 

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935 mb
Analysis Fax Chart 18z Saturday 3rd 2014

 

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934 mb
Analysis Fax Chart 00z Sunday 5th 2014

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937 mb
Analysis Fax Chart 06z Sunday 5th 2014

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942 mb
Analysis Fax Chart 12z Sunday 5th 2014

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