Thankfully the low now engaging the British Isles is not intensifying or deepening, although as Piers Corbyn has said it will still be
VERY BIG and BAD rather than very very bad
He goes on to explain
In all the previous major storms October onwards this year WeatherAction correctly warned that the MetOffice were underestimating the top wind gusts – because our WeatherAction solar-based Top Red (R5, R4) Factors were operating. In THIS case although it is a very large system our top red ‘enhancement’ factors are not operating so although huge and dangerous waves are expected it will probably not have the local wind and hail ferocity of the NY+2, Jan3 storm. Met Office top wind warnings therefore as 1800 Jan 5 are probably accurate or OVERESTIMATES”
This is how the Met Office see the progress of the depression with an reading of 962 mb as it crosses North of Scotland over the next 36 hours
Below I look at how #Christine appears to, thankfully, be weakening. Please note whilst this storm may not be as severe as some of the systems that have gone before the accumulated weakening to structures, the storm surge, the saturated ground and swollen rivers mean this storm is still very dangerous.
Before I use Met Office faxes here’s the Jetstream which looks to be loosing intensity (white areas within the grey) which I noted in an earlier post.
Lack of solar factors
all images from SpaceWeather
- There are no coronal holes in an earth facing position (a CH is cresting the North West limb and a dark coronal feature is near centre disc).
- Solar wind has dropped from ~600 to ~400 km/sec
- The planetary K index is falling quiet
- Solar behemoth sunspot 1944, which “has a ‘beta-gamma-delta’ magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares” is still approaching, however due to its instability it does bear watching over the next few days.
The Past 24 Hours
This is how the low has progressed with the central pressure increasing from 935 mb on Saturday to 947 mb (see top of this post).