I will be creating other forecasts based upon analogue blends and using solar signals. I hope to do a rolling forecast based solely upon solar activity. The idea is just to see what works and what doesn’t.
This forecast is based upon one analogue year with slight lunar modulation. To a degree it is based upon the assumption of a decrease, with short term moderation, in solar activity (both flux and ssn) between now and the end of February. If solar activity increases then the colder phases in the coming month are less likely.
Winter into Summer
Cool dips to follow;
27 Jan, 3 Feb, 17 Feb, 28 Feb – 2 Mar, 28 Mar.
The coldest part of this winter should fall in the period around the New Moon at the end of February. Each window is possible for plentiful snow with a battleground scenario suggested by the relative swings in temperature, however this means snow on the ground will be transitory lasting a couple of days.
From about the second week of March the temperature will swing back and forth peaking around the 17th and again on around the 3rd April where after it will fall slowly, then quite rapidly until around the 21st. Although temperatures will recover they should not go above average until into the second week of May with two peaks around 12th and 25th.
The first real hot spell of the year looks to be in the second week of June but it looks fleeting and a return to cooler than average conditions, with slight modulation, not been exceeded until the very last days of the month.
Temperatures should remain modest to pleasant through into the third week of July where temperatures will drop which suggests rain and lots of it. After this cool wet spell of some 7-10 days temperatures should recover into August. The hottest phase of 2014 should peak around the New Moon on the 10th or shortly thereafter. It won’t last but may lead to some spectacular storms.
Late Summer into Winter
Bar two peaks on or around the 18th and 25th August there should be a general decline with hot spells quickly broken down so that the last week of the month may feel chilly for the time of year dropping again into the first week of September. Temperatures should then recover to above seasonal average peaking around the 18th. Temperatures should then return to average and slowly decline into the second week of October which will be quite cold for the time of year (early frosts) although temperatures will recover to above average shortly after suggesting a possibly windy and wet phase. Halloween will be warm and will be followed by a further seasonal decline which will be abruptly followed by a cold wintery spell mid month that will last until the first week of December. After temperatures rather quickly recover to average to above for about a week before dropping in a linear manner to see the year out becoming very cold. At this point it looks like temperatures will not recover until towards the end of January 2015.
Note: the eastern phase of the QBO – the trade winds – is more favourable to cold winters. I believe it will be early.