The Scare Story of 1881

Big Picture News, Informed Analysis

Back in the 19th century, newspapers declared that something had “gone wrong” with the climate. The public was told that the telegraph system might cause the destruction of the human race.

1881_scare_storyOver at his RealScience blog, Steven Goddard has unearthed a fabulous news clipping from the 19th century.

131 years ago this month, an Australian newspaper (archived by the national library of that country) reprinted a story that had appeared in London’s St. James’s Gazette. The Gazette said it was informing its readers about “a timely note of warning” that had appeared in “one of the American papers.”

The concern back then involved the effect an expanding telegraph system might have on – you guessed it – the climate. The article says that if there were “sufficient electrical connection by wires around the earth” with the Earth itself, the planet’s polarity could be reversed.

The result…

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95% of Climate Models Agree: The Observations Must be Wrong

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I am growing weary of the variety of emotional, misleading, and policy-useless statements like “most warming since the 1950s is human caused” or “97% of climate scientists agree humans are contributing to warming”, neither of which leads to the conclusion we need to substantially increase energy prices and freeze and starve more poor people to death for the greater good.
Yet, that is the direction we are heading.

Watts Up With That?

Note: This is a repost from Dr. Roy Spencer’s blog entry last Friday. I’ve done so because it needs the wide distribution that WUWT can offer. The one graph he has produced (see below) says it all. I suggest readers use their social media tools to share this far and wide. – Anthony

by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

I’m seeing a lot of wrangling over the recent (15+ year) pause in global average warming…when did it start, is it a full pause, shouldn’t we be taking the longer view, etc.

These are all interesting exercises, but they miss the most important point: the climate models that governments base policy decisions on have failed miserably.

I’ve updated our comparison of 90 climate models versus observations for global average surface temperatures through 2013, and we still see that >95% of the models have over-forecast the warming trend since 1979, whether…

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So what about 1929, Julia?

So it’s the wettest for 250 years or so for parts. Looking at that rough period (from Booty)
1755, 1756 & 1758 All wet summers in the London area. More generally, April of 1756 was notably wet by the EWP series: amongst the top 3 such-named months. (See also 1782 and 1818).
1763-1772(Summers) These years experienced wet summers, with an average for the period of 117% 1 1763 (Summer) A very wet summer across England & Wales. The anomaly is given by Lamb (in CHMW) as 181% of LTA (1916-1950), and he ranks it as the second wettest in the rain-gauge record. However, note that across Scotland, there are reports of a ‘Great drought’ during the summer of 1763 & differences north-to-south like this are quite common occurrences.
http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1750_1799.htm
Sounds like a southerly jetstream then too. It can only be co2.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26084625

All the evidence suggests there is a link to climate change”, says Julia Slingo.

There is a slight problem though – the Met Office report she quotes , “The Recent Storms and Floods in the UK”, says no such thing at all. What it does say is that recent weather events are linked to “major perturbations to the Pacific and North Atlantic jet streams driven, in part, by persistent rainfall over Indonesia and the tropical West Pacific.”

The report speculates that this may all be connected to warmer waters in the Tropical West Pacific, without explaining what has, in turn, caused this.

I will leave this matter in the capable hands others, but the report itself concludes “In terms of the storms and floods of winter 2013/2014, it is not possible, yet, to give a definitive answer on whether climate…

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Can Slingo Get Anything Right?

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

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http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/4881369/Is-the-UK-set-for-Arctic-weather.html

Last April, Julia Slingo told us that “climate change was loading the dice towards freezing, drier weather.”

Apparently, she actually meant milder, wetter weather.

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26084625

FOOTNOTE

The report in the Sun, is based around an interview with ITN News, where Slingo makes exactly the same comments as reported in the Sun.

http://www.itv.com/news/2013-04-10/met-office-investigating-arctic-link-in-record-low-temperatures/

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Met Office forecasting skill on show.

Tallbloke's Talkshop

In the document backing up Dame Slingo of Somerset’s reframing of weather as climate we find this gem:

Sea level along the English Channel has already risen by about 12cm in the last 100 years. With the warming we are already committed to over the next few decades, a further 11-16cm of sea level rise is likely by 2030. This equates to 23-27cm (9-10½ inches) of total sea level
rise since 1900.

(c)Crown Copyright 2014, Met Office, NERC
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/n/i/Recent_Storms_Briefing_Final_07023.pdf

NOTE THAT MET-O has changed their wording a little: SEE UPDATE HERE:

Tim Channon has plotted this so we can take a look at what the MET Office is telling us:

See figure 1. Note units, 11-16cm  is  110 to 160 mm.

 

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