Place your bets…

So, so true.

Digging in the Clay

This news just in…

After harsh criticism of its seasonal forecasts, and faced with further government cutbacks, the Met Office has developed an inexpensive new forecasting method. 

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The Storms Of 1993

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

We have had plenty of stormy weather recently, particularly in December 2013, which the Met Office say was the worst month since 1993. Prior to that, both 1984 and 1990 were also much stormier. (The Met Office classify this from the number of stations experiencing above 60Kt gusts each day).

image

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/2013-decwind

As can be seen, January 1993 was recorded almost twice as many counts as last December. It is also worth noting that only two out of the ten have taken place since 2000, whereas four took place in the 1990’s, and three in the 1970’s. (The measurements only start from 1969).

To get some perspective, let’s take a closer look at the Met Office’s Monthly Report for January 1993.

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Who Is Worse? Slingo’s Met Office Or NOAA?

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

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http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-02-18/the-official-forecast-of-the-u-dot-s-dot-government-never-saw-this-winter-coming

Apparently, it’s not just our beloved UK Met Office that failed so miserably to forecast this winter’s weather. It seems that NOAA did not do any better!

From Bloomberg:

Surprised by how tough this winter has been? You’re in good company: Last fall the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted that temperatures would be above normal from November through January across much of the Lower 48 states. This graphic shows just how wrong the official forecast of the U.S. government was:

The big red blotch in the top map represents parts of the country in which the Climate Prediction Center forecast above-average temperatures. The frigid-looking blue blotch in the bottom “verification” map shows areas where temperatures turned out to be below average.

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US Tornado Report – 2013

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

tornado-counts-0112-2013

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/tornadoes/2013/13

The US tornado data has now been confirmed for last year, and once again I have to correct the highly misleading (and, in my view, deliberately so) graph, put up by NOAA, which I show above.

Anybody looking at this would immediately jump to the conclusion that, although last year was a bit lower than in the recent past, there had been a steady rise in tornado numbers since 1950. Bear in mind that many people never get beyond the headlines.

So, to put the record straight. Many, many more tornadoes get to be recorded these days than even 20 years ago, never mind 60 years. This is because of a revolution in methods of observation and reporting over the years. For instance, Doppler radar was only fully introduced in the late 1990’s. Other factors involve increasing population, tornado spotters, mobile phones, and development of spotter…

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“Wettest Ever” Winter Update

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

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http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/02/20/winter-so-far-20th-february-rainfall-update/

I have now had the chance to fully analyse the latest rainfall numbers put up by the Met Office. Let’s start by looking at the actual numbers up to 19th Feb, and an estimate of where we are likely to be by the end of February. (I do not like to do this sort of speculation, and would much rather wait till the actual numbers are confirmed, However, as the Met Office have set the ball rolling, I have little choice.)

The forecast for the rest of the month is nothing scientific! It just assumes average rainfall, which does not seem particularly out of line with Met forecast. Also, I would point out that the Met Office have not issued any figures for the England & Wales series for February so far – consequently my guesstimate is less certain.

Rainfall
mm
UKEnglandEngland & Wales

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The Met Office’s outlook for UK winter 2013-14

Official blog of the Met Office news team

There are some headlines in the media today discussing the Met Office long range forecast for this winter.

Firstly it’s important to remember that it’s our short and medium term forecasts that are relied on by emergency responders to help them manage the impacts of severe weather.

The Met Office’s five-day forecasts and severe weather warnings have provided excellent guidance throughout the period of exceptionally stormy and wet weather we have experienced this winter. This advice has helped everyone from the emergency services, to government organisations and the public plan ahead for the conditions we’ve seen.

The news stories are based on information taken from our three month outlook for contingency planners, issued at the end of November 2013 so, what can our three month outlooks tell us?

These outlooks are not like our other forecasts because, as we have discussed previously, it’s not currently scientifically possible to provide…

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A must read: Why Secretary of State John Kerry Is Flat Wrong on Climate Change

Watts Up With That?

By Dr. Richard McNider and Dr. John Christy

models-vs-datasets

In a Feb. 16 speech in Indonesia, Secretary of State John Kerry assailed climate-change skeptics as members of the “Flat Earth Society” for doubting the reality of catastrophic climate change. He said,

“We should not allow a tiny minority of shoddy scientists” and “extreme ideologues to compete with scientific facts.”

But who are the Flat Earthers, and who is ignoring the scientific facts?

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