The National Climate Assessment ‘bad science gone berserk’

WeatherAction News

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John Coleman, founder of the Weather Channel on the Hollywood script that is the National Climate Assessment [my emphasis]

The sky is falling. “Climate Change” is running wild and disaster is certain unless we immediately stop burning coal and oil and move quickly to “green energy” to eliminate use of fossil fuels. Heat waves, huge floods, powerful storms, droughts and rising seas are on the verge of killing millions of us and destroying our civilization.

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Extreme Rainfall Claims Not Supported By Data

“It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with [observations], it’s wrong.”

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

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http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/apr/30/climate-change-extreme-rainfall-england-flooding

The Guardian, reporting on some recent research from Oxford University, comment:

Climate change caused by humans has made the likelihood of extreme rainfall similar to that seen in England this winter significantly higher, according to analysis seen by the Guardian.

Rainfall events that would previously have occurred only once in a century are now likely to be witnessed once every eighty years in the south of England, the Oxford University work shows.

That will mean far more frequent severe floods for residents of the crowded region, with what were once extremely rare events now happening much more often than the infrastructure of the region is equipped for. The research shows an increase in the rate of such events of about 20 to 25%, which significantly alters the number of homes likely to be vulnerable to flooding.

The first thing to point out is that these…

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Commentary on the salesmanship of uncertain science in the National Climate Assessment report

Watts Up With That?

There’s lots of hype flying around the newly released report by the Obama administration.

I didn’t comment much yesterday, I decided to read the report and consider it. Having done that, I’ll throw in my two cents with this statement.

To me, this looks more like a glossy sales pitch from a company that is pushing a product they know people may not need, but if marketed just right, it would be something they’d buy. It reminds me of some insurance commercials I’ve seen in the past, where the commercial portrays all the bad things that could happen to you if you don’t get covered. Basically, they are trying to make people afraid of the weather, and then they pitch a solution to that fear in a way that’s right up there with the best traditions of salesmanship:

Who wouldn’t want better weather? Just buy our product.

The marketing and…

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The Global Climate Model clique feedback loop

Watts Up With That?

Elevated from a WUWT comment by Dr. Robert G. Brown, Duke University

Frank K. says: You are spot on with your assessment of ECIMs/GCMs. Unfortunately, those who believe in their ability to predict future climate really don’t want to talk about the differential equations, numerical methods or initial/boundary conditions which comprise these codes. That’s where the real problems are…

Well, let’s be careful how you state this. Those who believe in their ability to predict future climate who aren’t in the business don’t want to talk about all of this, and those who aren’t expert in predictive modeling and statistics in general in the business would prefer in many cases not to have a detailed discussion of the difficulty of properly validating a predictive model — a process which basically never ends as new data comes in.

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Tony Thomas: Suitable Cases for Treatment

Excellent but disturbing piece.

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Suitable Cases For Treatment
by Tony Thomas

Wreathed in self-importance but boasting little grasp of the science, the Australian Psychological Society is no fair-weather friend of the warmist movement. Indeed, its dire prophecies and ill-informed endorsements of the most dubious methods and “evidence” make it a case study in institutional delusion

Professor of Psychology Stephan Lewandowsky is much in the news of late because the science publishers Frontiers dumped his paper, Recursive Fury (pathologising climate skeptics), because of its ethical shortcomings. Lewandowsky  is a favorite of the Australian Psychological Society (APS). According to UK Guardian, the APS backed him all the way. The APS, said The Guardian, offers  “a good example for journals to follow when subjected to organized bullying from contrarians trying to censor sound but inconvenient research.”

It seems time for a look at the APS, a 21,000-member international pacesetter among psychology bodies for ministering to…

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More Little Ice Age Droughts In Africa

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

h/t Jimbo

Further to my post last week on African Droughts in the LIA, Jimbo sent links to a couple of other papers show similarly severe events, both then and earlier.

1) Little Ice Age drought in equatorial Africa: Intertropical Convergence Zone migrations and El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability.

By JM Russell & TC Johnson, 2006.

ABSTRACT

High-resolution analyses of the Mg concentration in authigenic calcite in five cores from Lake Edward provide a water balance history of central equatorial Africa spanning the past 1400 yr. A high ratio of Mg to Ca (%Mg) indicates strong droughts in central Africa during the Little Ice Age (A.D. 1400–1750), in contrast to records from Lake Naivasha, Kenya, which suggest a wet Little Ice Age. This spatial pattern in Africa likely arose due to coupled changes in the high latitudes, the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and…

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MAGNITUDE 6.2 WEST CHILE RISE

Earth Changing Extremities

http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=376748

Subject To Change

Depth: 33 km

Distances:
2395 km W of Santiago, Chile / pop: 4,837,295 / local time: 16:52:34.5 2014-05-06
3350 km SW of Lima, Peru / pop: 7,737,002 / local time: 15:52:34.5 2014-05-06
3458 km W of Buenos Aires, Argentina / pop: 13,076,300 / local time: 17:52:34.5 2014-05-06

Global viewRegional view

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U.S. National Climate Assessment Report

To think the National Climate Assessment didn’t come in 3D!
https://craigm350.wordpress.com/2014/05/07/i-want-the-national-climate-assessment-to-come-in-3d/

Climate Etc.

by Judith Curry

Climate change, once considered a problem for the distant future, has moved firmly into the present.  Climate change is already affecting the American people. – U.S. NCADAC

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I want the National Climate Assessment to come in 3D

Based on a comment I left at the WeatherAction blog.

Good grief! [the] late night BBC Newsday has regurgitated the latest sexed up dossier.

Temperatures are ‘rising’, sea levels may rise ‘four feet’, American winters will be shorter and milder (don’t laugh) oh my the shock, the horror and it’s happening now!

To think the National Climate Assessment didn’t come in 3D! Let us campaign for the next NCA report to include 3D special effects, amazing stunts? sharknado’s and ninty foot dinosaurs creating carnage on the streets eating ‘deniers’.

I mean if we are going to make a scientific report devoid of science (lots of filler tho’) then we might as well go the full fiction hog and get our monies worth of ‘scenarios’ and hire Dan Brown to write it (he seems ‘sciency’). Although, sometimes it is best to let a bad series die a natural death, I think we can afford the diehard fans one last send off.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/05/06/quotes-of-the-week-some-early-comments-on-the-national-climate-assesment-report/