With the publication of the IPCC 5th Synthesis Report, I thought there might be some interest in a presentation of how well (actually poorly) climate models simulate global mean surface temperatures in absolute terms. That is, most climate model outputs are presented in terms of anomalies, with data shown as deviations from the temperatures of a multi-decadal reference period. See Figure 1.
Rarely, are models and model-data comparisons shown in absolute terms. That’s what’s presented in this post after a discussion of the estimates of Earth’s absolute mean surface temperature from data suppliers: GISS, NCDC and BEST. Afterwards, we return to anomalies.
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