Is Tim Flannery a Big Pig at the Trough or is he related to Harold Camping?

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Image courtesy Jo Nova

Lomborg-the-economist agrees completely with the IPCC and Flannery on the climate science. But he disagrees on the economic and policy positions. Obviously it’s a disaster if the Flannery-IPCC economic predictions are subject to analysis.

Flannery, self-satirical, on the appointment of Lomberg:

“Mr Lomborg’s views have no credibility in the scientific community. His message hasn’t varied at all in the last decade and he still believes we shouldn’t take any steps to mitigate climate change. When someone is unwilling to adapt their view on the basis of new science or information, it’s usually a sign those views are politically motivated.

So here’s Tim Flannery ten years ago, predicting permanent rainfall drops, back-to-back El Ninos, dry dams by 2007. How much has he changed his position based on the evidence?

ABC’s Lateline, June 10, 2005:

I’m afraid that the science around climate change is firming up fairly quickly…

…. the most worrying [phenomenon] is this semi-permanent el Nino-like condition that’s occurring as the Pacific Ocean warms up, and we’re seeing much longer el Ninos than we’ve seen before and often now back-to-back el Ninos with very little of the la Nina cycle, the flood cycle, in between.

… we’ve seen some quite considerable and look to be permanent rainfall drops across much of southern and eastern Australia.

look at the Warragamba catchment figures, they’ve got about two years of supply left…

MAXINE McKEW: So does that mean, really, we’re faced with – if that’s right – back-to-back droughts and continuing thirsty cities?

TIM FLANNERY: That’s right. That looks to be the case.

http://joannenova.com.au/2015/04/nothing-is-more-scary-than-funding-a-skeptic-flannery-over-reacts-shoots-himself-in-the-foot/

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Swap United States for 'Flannery' and Canadian for 'Lomborg'

Tim’s Gems

2003 Tim Flannery is proving a rent-a-quote to push funds towards his pockets (well he was promoting his super duper book).

TIM FLANNERY: Well for the Murray-Darling system, it’s probably something like 10 or 20 years. We’ve got it… something has to give in that time. For salination in the wheat belt it’s already too late for much of that country. 

But the real decision over the great bulk of it will be made over the next 30-40 years, I suspect. The biodiversity crisis is grinding on, and that’s probably something that we’re again looking at, you know, half a century or so. 

Global warming, unless we act now, we will be in very, very severe trouble, and it’s not just Australia – that’s the world. 

ELEANOR HALL: And…

TIM FLANNERY: You’re looking…

ELEANOR HALL: Sorry, go on.

TIM FLANNERY: Sorry. We’re looking at a 6 degree rise in temperature over the next century, and for the million years that there’s been anything like people on this planet, there’s never been a world that hot. And it’s absolutely unpredictable.

http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2003/s822886.htm

The world did not act ‘now’.

So how is the 6 degrees going against the more moderate predictions of less than half of that amount?

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Image courtesy WUWT/Christopher Monckton

A predicable failure IMO.

2005

TIM FLANNERY: Well, you can’t predict the future; that’s one of the things that you learn fairly early on, but if I could just say, the general patterns that we’re seeing in the global circulation models – and these are very sophisticated computer tools [see chart above], really, for looking at climate shift – are saying the same sort of thing that we’re actually seeing on the ground. So when the models start confirming what you’re observing on the ground, then there’s some fairly strong basis for believing that we’re understanding what’s causing these weather shifts and these rainfall declines, and they do seem to be of a permanent nature. I don’t think it’s just a cycle. I’d love to be wrong, but I think the science is pointing in the other direction. 

MAXINE McKEW: So does that mean, really, we’re faced with – if that’s right – back-to-back droughts and continuing thirsty cities? 

TIM FLANNERY: That’s right. That looks to be the case. We’ll know probably within two or three years, I suppose, how this is going to play out, particularly for Sydney, because its water supply is limited to that sort of scale, but it is my fear that the new weather regime is going to be a much drier one, and while we may get the odd good rainfall event, they’re going to be much less frequent than in the past, and we’ll just be in a different climatic regime. 

So how did that prediction go Tim?

In 2007 the Victorian Government thought it was a good idea to spend $24 billion to build a humungously big desalination plant. There was a drought on at the time, and a specialist in small dead mammals said the drought would never end.  But now Victorian households will pay up to $310 extra in water bills next year, and something like that every year for the next 28 years until it’s paid off.  Even the people running the plant say it’s too big,
Herald Sun EXCLUSIVE: THE French boss of the troubled Wonthaggi desalination plant has admitted for the first time that the plant is too big for Melbourne’s water needs.  Suez Environment chief executive Jean-Louis Chaussade told the Herald Sun the size of the plant was based on unrealistic rainfall expectations.  “The design was done to provide water to the full city of Melbourne in case of no rain during one year – which was not realistic … The details why it was 150GL per year, I don’t know,” he said

http://joannenova.com.au/2012/12/most-useless-flagrant-flop-of-government-muffog-2012-finalist-victorian-desal/

THE NSW State Emergency Service (SES) has had a busy night afterhuge rainfalls had parts of western Sydney and the Illawarra flooding.  SES spokesman Dave Owens said the suburb of Londonderry, near Penrith, received about 104mm of rain in a short few hours overnight.

Sydney dam storages this week:

82.6%

https://globalfreeze.wordpress.com/2012/02/10/even-the-rain-that-falls-isnt-actually-going-to-fill-our-dams-and-river-systems/

2005

The golden toad was the first documented victim of global warming. We had killed it with our profligate use of coal-fired electricity and our oversize cars just as surely as if we had flattened its forest with bulldozers. It was as if, having experienced it, we did not recognize what happiness was.

Did Tim use rigorous science for this statement or did he just pluck it out of his backside? The evidence would suggest his backside played a major part. It is quite possible his anus and mouth have swapped places.

Karen Lips had been surveying amphibians in Central and South America and had tirelessly warned of the impending dangers of spreading Bd. In 2008 she reported, “Available data support the hypothesis of multiple introductions of this invasive pathogen into South America and subsequent spread along the primary Andean cordilleras. Additional analyses found no evidence to support the hypothesis that climate change has been driving outbreaks of amphibian chytridiomycosis”.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/21/contrasting-good-and-bad-science-disease-climate-change-and-the-case-of-the-golden-toad/

I haven’t seen predictions and accuracy this good since Harold Camping was doing the rounds. Thankfully he’s now a footnote in history which was fun at the time.

http://csmonitor.com/Science/2011/0526/Doomsday-date-was-miscalculated-says-Harold-Camping

Sadly Tim Flannery’s gobshite is still being amplified by a supine media addicted to making huge piles of horeshit the rest of us have to wade through. Actually scrap that horseshit has its uses, whereas Tim…

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