The Story Behind That 2007 Paper

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6290228.stm

As I mentioned yesterday, Dr Mike Lockwood wrote a paper back in 2007 which claimed that changes in solar radiation had no impact on recent global warming.

What is intriguing is that six years later, in 2013, he seems to have totally changed his mind, as the BBC meteorologist, Paul Hudson, related at the time:

It’s known by climatologists as the ‘Little Ice Age’, a period in the 1600s when harsh winters across the UK and Europe were often severe.

The severe cold went hand in hand with an exceptionally inactive sun, and was called the Maunder solar minimum.

Now a leading scientist from Reading University has told me that the current rate of decline in solar activity is such that there’s a real risk of seeing a return of such conditions.

I’ve been to see Professor Mike Lockwood to take a look at the work…

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Sick Science

MalagaBay

Sick Science

Following hot on the heels of the Papal Pap and the New and Improved Sixth Mass Extinction Pap the cut & paste press has been infected with another virulent virus of the vacuous kind: Practitioner Pap.

Panel of doctors give a warming Earth a physical and say kick the coal habit immediately
Seth Borenstein / The Associated Press – 22 June 2015

WASHINGTON – Some top international doctors and public health experts have issued an urgent prescription for a feverish planet Earth: Get off coal as soon as possible.

Substituting cleaner energy worldwide for coal will reduce air pollution and give Earth a better chance at avoiding dangerous climate change, recommended a global health commission organized by the prestigious British medical journal Lancet.

http://www.timescolonist.com/panel-of-doctors-give-a-warming-earth-a-physical-and-say-kick-the-coal-habit-immediately-1.1976357

The Practitioner Pap is recommending surgery: “Cut out Coal”.

Published: June 22, 2015
Top doctors’ prescription for feverish planet: Cut out coal
Associated Press

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Historical sunspot numbers are about to be given an adjustment

Watts Up With That?

UPDATE: Some commenters got the wrong idea about this article, see the footnote.

monthly sunspots 1749 2014Our resident solar physicist Dr. Leif Svalgaard is one of the scientists involved in the effort

Dear SILSO user,

Mon, Jun 22, 2015 11:42 am

Over the past 4 years a community effort has been carried out to revise entirely the historical Sunspot Number series. A good overview of the analyses and identified corrections is provided in the recent review paper:
Clette, F., Svalgaard, L., Vaquero, J.M., Cliver, E. W.,“Revisiting the Sunspot Number. A 400-Year Perspective on the Solar Cycle”, Space Science Reviews, Volume 186, Issue 1-4, pp. 35-103.

Now that the new data series has been finalized, we are about to replace the original version of our sunspot data
by an entirely new data set on July 1st. On this occasion, we decided to simultaneously introduce changes in several conventions in the data themselves and also in the…

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My Arctic Pub Crawl

Real Science

My devotion towards understanding the climate took me on a 5,000 mile pub crawl yesterday. It began near Stonehenge at this 500 year old pub, which shall remain unnamed in order to protect the perfect.

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The Moon, Venus and Jupiter put on quite a show near Stonehenge Friday night, where it was a still light out at 10:45 PM.

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Next stop was southeast Greenland, where I attempted to photograph Hendrik’s dog from 38,000 feet. Farmers in southeast Greenland might be having a bit of a rough time.

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Experts say the glaciers are disappearing, because they are paid to lie and confuse the public.

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I did see a tiny bit of melting at the western fringe of the ice sheet.

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Winter snows remain right up to the western coast. 

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There are still huge amounts of sea ice in Baffin Bay, and it shows little sign of melting.

ScreenHunter_9591 Jun. 21 07.08

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The glaciers in eastern…

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Good Climate News From My Alma Mater

The Lukewarmer's Way

“Redwood forests near the California-Oregon border have seen the largest surge in wood production, with growth rates since the 1970s up to 45 percent faster now than at any time in the past 200 years.”  For the second day in a row I’m looking at the San Jose Mercury News as my source for a story that seems like untrammeled good news.

redwood_forest__girl_and_horse_by_mariegoff

“We’re not seeing any evidence of declining growth rates,” said Steve Sillett, a forestry professor at Humboldt State (where I briefly studied anthropology and journalism) and nationally known redwoods expert. “In fact, a lot of the sites are exhibiting increasing rates of growth over the last 100 years.”

As Matt Ridley reported two years ago, this was predicted by Charles Keeling, known for the eponymous Keeling Curve. It isn’t just the redwood forests. Ridley wrote, “Between 1982 and 2011, 20.5% of the world’s vegetated area got greener…

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Chile: Breathtaking Footage of Volcanic Eruption

WeatherAction News

Truly amazing footage of Calbuco.

Martin Heck – Volcano Calbuco erupted on April 22, 2015, for the first time in four decades. Located close to the cities of Puerto Varas and Puerto Montt in southern Chile. We spend the prior couple of days on the neighboring volcano Osorno (~20km linear distance) shooting timelapses. After an amazing night under the nightsky we took the cable car downwards after a delay caused by repairs. Already late we headed south to catch the ferry on Routa 7 down to Patagonia. After 10min on the ferry we noticed a massive, almost nuclear looking cloud boiling upwards just were we left a few hours ago. Frenetically looking for a good outlook we then rushed to the only non-forested place to get a decent view of the show. We quickly put every bit of camera-equipment we could find on the constantly growing mushroom-cloud. We shot…

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The 6th Extinction and the Dog That Didn’t Bark

The Lukewarmer's Way

As the San Jose Mercury News reports, “In the most sobering study of extinction yet, a team of Bay Area scientists says that animal species are disappearing at an accelerating rate — portending the sixth mass extinction in the 4.5-billion-year history of the Earth.” Perhaps inspired by the recent book by Elizabeth Kolbert titled ‘The Sixth Extinction‘, the subject is now au courant. Personally I preferred The Fifth Element.

Fifth Element

Such a story would be incomplete without a mention of Paul Ehrlich, and he does indeed appear, saying “without any significant doubt that we are now entering the sixth great mass extinction event.”

The entire argument is not helped by the fuzzy nature of the mathematics used by those announcing the Sixth Extinction. We quite literally don’t know how many species exist on the planet. We do not know how many species are going extinct now. We don’t know…

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Is The Catholic Church Burned By The Sun Again?

Watts Up With That?

Guest Opinion: Dr. Tim Ball

Sunspot plate from Scheiner's Tres Epistolae. Credit: The Galileo Project Sunspot plate from Scheiner’s Tres Epistolae. Credit: The Galileo Project

Spanish-born American Philosopher George Santayana famously said, “Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” The recent Papal Encyclical announced the Catholic Church’s decision to join the scientific claims that humans are causing global warming and denounce climate scientists who oppose the claim. It came almost exactly 400 years after Galileo was denounced to the Roman Inquisition in the spring of 1615. The Catholic Church only acknowledged the errors of their actions, their last and most negative brush with science, when they forgave Galileo in 1992. Pope John Paul said labeling Galileo a heretic and confining him to life imprisonment was an error. It only took 377 years for the Church to catch up with reality. No doubt Galileo is delighted, assuming he made it to heaven.

Galileo supported…

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Basics of Ocean Acidification

Science Matters

If surface temperatures don’t skyrocket soon, expect to hear a lot in the coming months about “ocean acidification.”  This sounds scary, and that is the point of emphasizing it in the runup to Paris COP.

So here’s the basic chemistry of CO2 and H20:

That seems straight forward,  So what is the problem?

That looks fairly serious.  So what does the IPCC have to say about this issue?

What does it say in the SPM (Summary for Policy Makers)?

For this issue, I looked at the topic of ocean acidification and fish productivity. The SPM asserts on Page 17 that fish habitats and production will fall and that ocean acidification threatens marine ecosystems.

“Open-ocean net primary production is projected to redistribute and, by 2100, fall globally under all RCP scenarios. Climate change adds to the threats of over-fishing and other non-climatic stressors, thus complicating marine management regimes (high confidence).” Pg 17 SPM

“For…

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#Aboriginal Memory Thousands of Years Old #citizenscientist

Kate's Science Fiction, News, and Poetry

Panoramic_view_of_King_Georges_Sound_(5)Myths and legends usually belong to folklore, but Australian aboriginal tales helped scientists find meteorites and traces of a tsunami. One “legend describes the landing of a meteor in Australia’s Central Desert about 4,700 years ago.” Anglo prospectors found pieces of meteorites and the area is now Henbury Meteorites Conservation Reserve. Another led to the discovery of “a layer of ocean sediment, about 2m down… between 500m and 1km (0.6 miles) inland” that indicate a tsunami.

These indigenous peoples may have unique legends. Isolated on Australia for 50,000 years, they avoided the invasions, diasporas, and assimilation that swept larger continents. They also developed “very particular beliefs about the importance of telling stories properly… [and] employ a rigid kin-based, cross-generational system of fact-checking stories… rock paintings, drawings and engravings.” Stories that retain their basic truth for five thousand years and more leave me – holding my pile of defunct floppy disks…

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