Study finds a natural cause for early 20th century Arctic warming – but kowtows to CO2 in the present

Climate models do a poor job of simulating the reconstructed record of circulation change…. Climate model ensembles show limited power to predict multidecadal variation in [Pacific North American pattern] over the period of our record, raising questions about their potential to project future hydroclimatic change modulated by this circulation pattern.

Bob Tisdale has said as much many, many times before.

Watts Up With That?

From the universities of Kyoto & San Diego comes this old tired catchphrase, along with a polar bear picture to go with the press release.

Is a warmer Arctic a canary of global warming?

Kyoto University and UCSD uncover a cause for the warming in the Arctic in the early 20th century.
CREDIT Kyoto University

Since the 1970s the northern polar region has warmed faster than global averages by a factor or two or more, in a process of ‘Arctic amplification’ which is linked to a drastic reduction in sea ice.

But then how to explain a similar rapid warming that occurred during the early 20th century, when the effects of greenhouse gases were considerably weaker than today? And what can we prove about the period, given the scarcity of usable data and observations prior to the 1950s?

Now scientists from Kyoto University and UC San Diego have discovered that…

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