Watch “Piers Corbyn: The Reality of Long Range Weather and Climate Forecasting | Electric Universe 2014”

Some of the comments;

Robert W. (subscriber, Toronto, Canada)

Excellent presentation on Thunderbolts Piers, comedy gold

Steve Devine (subscriber, Essex, England)

informative and amusing as ever

Maria (subscriber, Ireland)

Great vid Piers, i appreciate your work  […] I think I learnt more in that video (watched twice may need to watch again 🙂 than an entire school year in science and geography class!-) loved the humour too and really just the real approach to evidence based facts makes for better understanding…

And special thanks to Richard (subscriber, East Midlands) for highlighting the video itself;

u might get a statue outside the Royal Society in 300 years 🙂

Full comments/reaction, latest news here and here

Solar induced Earthquakes?

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Note on image:
– Red X marks approximate times and magnitudes of earthquakes (values by European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre). These are ‘plotted’ on the phi axis.
– Blue X marks the approximate timing of the M7 CME and the blue circle the arrival indicated by the ramp in solar wind speed. Note the quakes subsided after the arrival.
– White Circles correspond to the Red X marks and are to highlight density.
– Orange solar images (positioned arbitrarily)
are in 193 angstroms (from spaceweather.com)
the green is from GOES as the 193 angstroms image had not updated on spaceweather.com at the time created.

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Is there a ‘shape’ to atmospheric circulation during low solar periods?

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Based on a comment over at Weather Action

I’ve been looking into the 76/77 N hemisphere winter as well. Steven Goddard flagged up the similarities with this past winter & how the shape of the polar vortex was like theshape of the Laurentide ice sheet which sat over NAmerica during the Younger Dryas (including Alaska being ice free). Interestingly there was a tongue of sea extending this year off the coast of Labrador & Newfoundland. The winter that followed in 77/78 was notable indeed. I’m gathering more detail for a post, but it’s made me wonder is this the ‘shape’ of lower solar activity?

Piers Corbyn replied

Your+Steve Goddard’s point about the shape of that great Laurentide ice sheet which sat over N America in ‘the Younger Dryas’ period is very important. Question; was cold distribution in Maunder and Dalton similar or not?

The Maunder period will be difficult to infer due to the sparse records on both sides of the Atlantic but a fair degree of work has been done by the likes of Lamb. Things do improve by the Dalton onwards. This is the start of a few posts to investigate a possible shape

of low solar activity, that is a change in the shape of the upper air circulation.

“The late Prof HH Lamb, a world renowned climatologist, investigated the impact of the Little Ice Age on Scotland for part of his book Climate History and the Modern World. He wrote of arctic ice expanding further south and of reports of Inuit people arriving on Orkney between 1690 and 1728. One was said to have paddled down the River Don in Aberdeen. Snow remained all year round on the tops of mountains, including the Cairngorms…With weather patterns disrupted, fierce were winds battered the land.”

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/highlands_and_islands/8010513.stm
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This period was also characterized by an anomalous winter atmospheric circulation over the circum-Atlantic region in the form of a tri-pole pattern.

Reconstructions of winter sea-level pressure (SLP) indicate that over Europe an anomalous low was found over the Balkan area and an anomalous high just south of Iceland (Luterbacher et al.,
2002). Over eastern North America, somewhat east of the Hudson bay, an anomalous low was found extending into the subtropics (Lamb and Johnson, 1959; van der Schrier and Barkmeijer, 2005). This latter low deepens the existing trough in SLP over the Newfoundland- Labrador area.

The Gulf Stream and Atlantic sea-surface temperatures in AD1790–1825

G. van der Schrier* and S. L. Weber

International Journal of Climatology

Volume 30, Issue 12, October 2010

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.2027/full

The following images reflect mean pressure values (see second image for key).
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Note on images. These are all taken from “On the nature of certain climactic epochs which differed from the modern (1900-39) normal” H.H.Lamb published in 1963 and reproduced in “The Changing Climate. Selected Papers” (1963) Routledge Revivals.

In the next a later post I’ll take a closer look at 1976/7, before returning to earlier periods LIA periods again.

This will be hosted at the WeatherAction News Blog

No Solar Factors

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Note the pressure listed is now 947 millibars
Analysis Fax Chart 18z Sunday 4th 2014

Thankfully the low now engaging the British Isles is not intensifying or deepening, although as Piers Corbyn has said it will still be

VERY BIG and BAD rather than very very bad

He goes on to explain

In all the previous major storms October onwards this year WeatherAction correctly warned that the MetOffice were underestimating the top wind gusts – because our WeatherAction solar-based Top Red (R5, R4) Factors were operating. In THIS case although it is a very large system our top red ‘enhancement’ factors are not operating so although huge and dangerous waves are expected it will probably not have the local wind and hail ferocity of the NY+2, Jan3 storm.  Met Office top wind warnings therefore as 1800 Jan 5 are probably accurate or OVERESTIMATES”

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This screenshot was sourced at 1828 hrs on 5th January 2014

Continue reading

New Year Storms: Jetstream Finally Running Out of Puff?

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Jetstream 12z analysis Sunday 5th January 2014
Image: California Regional Weather Server

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Jetstream forecast Friday 10th January 2014

Before the lull we have a low to contend with which thankfully will not be deepening as it traverses North of the British Isles but will still be of great concern. Continue reading

A Stormy New Year then Snow?

The purpose of this post is to show things as they stand ahead of a very active period of weather, which subscribers to Weather Action have know of since mid November. Piers Corbyn said

falls in our new R5+ period [top level warning] so we expect it will be more significant and potentially damaging [intense] compared with normal conditions than the storm of 23-24th Dec for example and we expect significant snow [Northerly flow] in it’s wake

N.B. I aim to revisit this in the New Year to see how the forecasts and models compare.

Currently Continue reading

Ferret Work

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Image courtesy Accuweather

For what seems weeks most of the British Isles has been sat underneath a cut off high pressure system, making it hot and very dry. The chances for storm activity increase in the early part of next week as moisture is finally being forecast at relatively reliable range, although this will be accompanied by an increase in humidity, before possible cooler wetter weather follows. Despite the lack of participative action, there has been dry weather action.

Based on a comment over at Weather Action:

the Times (sadly pay walled) reported two dust devils this month. Whilst searching for local news reports, I also found two other events for July. Note the dates of which Piers Corbyn said

Yes not stormy but still we had this. At the same time explicit events forecast were confirmed on Sun – Earth facing major activity (AR1785); and USA intense hail + derecho.

Continue reading