Climatology – CO2 and the Energy Budget

doubling or even multiplying by several fold the present amount of carbon dioxide, which would leave the absorption of solar radiation practically unchanged, and increase the absorption of terrestrial radiation at most to only 14 per cent, could increase the intensity of the radiation received at the surface of the earth about one-half of 1 per cent, and, therefore, the average temperature by no more than about 1.3 C. [1929]

Writing in 1997, Hubert Lamb wrote:

In 1896 the Swedish scientist, Sv. Arrhenius, professor of physics first at Uppsala and later in Stockholm, published his suggestion that increasing the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, as was already happening relentlessly, should be expected to warm world climates because of its absorption—i.e capture—of long-wave radiation that continually goes out from the Earth and so create a sort of ‘greenhouse effect’. And in 1938 in England G S Callendar seemed to show in a paper in the Royal Meteorological Society’s journal that the observed warming of surface temperatures over the Earth by about half a degree Celsius from around 1890 to the 1930s should be about right to be attributable to the radiation trapped in the atmosphere in this way. But there are some difficult points. Water vapour, which is abundant in the atmosphere except over the coldest regions of the Earth and in the stratosphere, also absorbs radiation and on almost al the same wave-lengths that the carbon dioxide absorbs.

Difficulties, too, beset attempts to show how variations in the amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in the past fit the theory that warm periods in world climate can be attributed to a greater CO2 content and cold periods to a lower CO2 amount. The CO2 content at various past times is presumably indicated by the gas trapped in bubbles in ice-sheets and glaciers. This does show less CO2 in glacial times, and during warmer interglacial periods the CO2 amount were greater. But, since carbon dioxide is more soluble in water—in the oceans for example—when temperatures are lower, the smaller amounts of CO2 in the bubbles in the ice sheets in ice age times could be just a result of the colder climates then prevailing. And, even within our own times, the suggestion that the increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere should be presumed to be the cause of the warming does not fit at all well with the sequence of observed values.

The great period of warming, at least in the northern hemisphere, was during the first 40 years of the 20th century (especially the first and fourth decades), but in the 1950s and 1960s when the CO2 was increasing more rapidly than ever before the prevailing temperatures were falling. Callendar himself was worried by this discrepancy and contacted both me and Professor Gordon Manley about it. There seem, in fact, to have been a number of shorter runs of sometimes up to 50 years with either rising or falling temperatures often setting in suddenly, and with no clear correspondence to changes in the atmospheric CO2 content. We also see that account must be taken of psychological reactions—even in the influential research community—to the variations towards greater or less warmth as and when they occur.

In the 1880s and 1890s, as a recent American meteorological investigator was the first to be able to show, world temperatures were lower than they had been since around 1850. That was just when Arrhenius came out with his suggestion that the man-made increase of carbon dioxide should be warming the Earth. And at that time the suggestion made little impact. When Callendar promoted the same idea 40 years later, however, it was in a warmer world, though very soon the bitter war winters came and implanted themselves in folk’s memories. And when G N Plass again put forward the CO2warming theory in papers published in 1954 and 1956, world climate was once more entering a colder phase, particularly in the northern hemisphere. Interest in the theory soon waned. It only revived after a run of up to 8 mild winters in a row affected much of Europe and parts of North America in the 1970s and 1980s. There then came a tremendous preponderance of publications on global warming, dominating the research literature, although over-all temperature averages in some regions, particularly in the Arctic, were still moving downward.

Now where would the profit and fear mongering be in that?

MalagaBay

CO2 and the Energy Budget

Talking about the weather has always been a popular pastime.

Reading about climate has been cyclically growing in popularity for the last 140 years.

Climate Publications 1850 - 1992

The Role of the Sun in Climate Change – Oxford University Press – 1997
Douglas V. Hoyt and Kenneth H. Schatten

Therefore, it is unsurprising that the influence of carbon dioxide upon the Earth’s climate was discussed as far back as the 1920s.

We have already seen that the amount of carbon dioxide gas in the atmosphere has a decided climatic importance.

Moreover, there can be little doubt that the amount of that gas in the atmosphere varies from age to age in response to the extent to which it is set free by volcanoes, consumed by plants, combined with rocks in the process of weathering, dissolved in the ocean or locked up in the form of coal and limestone.

The main question is whether such…

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Chile explodes: Expensive climate policies spark mass riots, just like the Yellow Vest protests in France

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Santiago metro train, Chile
Another case of out-of-touch politicians trying to impose their costly climate obsessions on the people and meeting strong resistance. Not getting the message yet?

Climate activists and the United Nations are suffering a major black eye this week as protests and riots resulting from high energy prices have erupted in Santiago, Chile, says The Epoch Times (via The GWPF).

Chile, which is hosting a major U.N. climate conference in December, earned praise from climate activists for recently imposing a carbon dioxide tax on conventional energy sources and switching the Santiago Metro system to renewable power.

Now, the people of Chile are rising up and firing a shot across the bow of other nations considering similar energy taxes and expensive renewable energy programs.

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Science Says: Get used to polar vortex outbreaks

So how long have they been measuring?
The first continued measurements of the stratosphere were taken by Richard Scherhag in 1951 using radiosondes to take reliable temperature readings in the upper stratosphere (~40 km) and he became the first to observe stratospheric warming on 27 January 1952. After his discovery, he assembled a team of meteorologists specifically to study the stratosphere at the Free University of Berlin and this group continued to map the northern-hemisphere stratospheric temperature and geopotential height for many years using radiosondes and rocketsondes.

In 1979 when the satellite era began, meteorological measurements became far more frequent. Although satellites were primarily used for the troposphere they also recorded data for the stratosphere. Today both satellites and stratospheric radiosondes are used to take measurements of the stratosphere.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warming

So yeah let’s extrapolate from where there’s a paucity of data 🤨

P. S. The vortex wandering is more likely to be due to solar/lunar influences.

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Polar vortex [image credit: NASA]
H/T Phys.org
Changing polar vortex patterns and wavy jetstreams – do they suggest solar magnetic changes as sunspots decline, or another 0.01% of trace gases in the atmosphere, or something else? Much scientific head-scratching, although research has been going on for a while.

It might seem counterintuitive, but the dreaded polar vortex is bringing its icy grip to parts of the U.S. thanks to a sudden blast of warm air in the Arctic, writes Seth Borenstein.

Get used to it. The polar vortex has been wandering more often in recent years.

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GIRAFFES Just Aren’t Going To Know What Snow Is

What the jetstream giveth in warmth, it can easily taketh away.

P.S. Jamie if only all cold weather was ‘weather’….if there’s an opportunity the climate change meme wants it all;

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/mar/13/extreme-winter-weather-becoming-more-common-as-arctic-warms-study-finds

🤪

Climatism

SOUTH AFRICA GIRAFFES SNOW - CLIMATISM SNOW in the Savannah – Climatism


Snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event.”
“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”
Dr David VinerSenior scientist, climatic research unit (CRU)

•••

THE planet’s “climate control knob” – CO2 – dumps a load of fresh global warming on the South African Savannah.

THE Guardian reports with no mention of “CLIMATE CHANGE”!?

ALAS, every organisation has rules and a code of conduct. The Guardian’s is easy…

HOT = CLIMATE

COLD = WEATHER

Spotted: giraffes in the snow

Antelope, rhinoceroses and elephants also photographed in icy conditions after late snowfall in South Africa

1080 Giraffes in the snow in the Karoo region of South Africa. Photograph: Kitty Viljoen

Animals more used to desert heat have been photographed enjoying the snow after a cold front brought snowfall to parts of South Africa over the weekend.

Giraffes, antelope, rhinoceroses and elephants were…

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Hothouse Earth

When you receive finding from the EU, expect to be covered in c**p. The only reason this was the top story on the beeb since yesterday is due to desperation. As Joe B has capably shown its the Atlantic stupid and not trace gas.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

Latest crap from the warmist establishment, gleefully blown up by the BBC

Climate change: ‘Hothouse Earth’ risks even if CO2 emissions slashed

It may sound like the title of a low budget sci-fi movie, but for planetary scientists, “Hothouse Earth” is a deadly serious concept.

Researchers believe we could soon cross a threshold leading to boiling hot temperatures and towering seas in the centuries to come.

Even if countries succeed in meeting their CO2 targets, we could still lurch on to this “irreversible pathway”.

Their study shows it could happen if global temperatures rise by 2C.

An international team of climate researchers, writing in the journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, says the warming expected in the next few decades could turn some of the Earth’s natural forces – that currently protect us – into our enemies.

Each year the Earth’s forests, oceans and land…

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Claim: London could run out of WATER in decades thanks to climate change and population rise

The only wrong kind we have is not weather, that will do as it always does, but swamp dwelling, ambulance chasers which sadly we may never run out of. The biggest threat we face is drowning in the effluent from their bloated, pustulent ignorant cake holes.

To pick up on what Kip wrote

[we should be cornered concerned with] an ever increasingly populous mostly focussed in the drier South – where we are more likely to pick up a drier continental flow than the more Atlantic influenced North and West – and a lack of reservoirs to deal with these dry patches we often hit along the way. According to a 2013 BBC article only one resevoir was built in London in the past 100 years:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-23798693

https://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2017/01/13/the-upas-and-downs-of-rainfall-trends/

Tallbloke's Talkshop


Another day, another climate scare. This time it’s not enough rain, or – believe it or not – ‘climate change’ bringing the wrong kind of rain, to London as the Evening Standard reports.

Millions of extra litres of drinking water must be sourced to stop parts of London running dry over the coming decades, Thames Water has warned.

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Barents Ice Machine

Science Matters

Barents Sea on the right adding ice in March 2018.

Arctic ice watchers looking for holes in the ice found one in Bering Sea and raise alarms about it.  Yes, the annual maximum is lower, entirely due to open water in Bering Sea, which melts out every summer anyway.

Elsewhere Arctic ice is ordinary, except for Barents Sea where there seems to be an ice machine that added 238k km2 to the extent there, an increase of 46% since March 1.

To see how unusual is this year in Barents, consider 2018 compared to other years:
To paraphrase George Custer at Little Big Horn:  “Where is all the damn ice coming from?”

To paraphrase David Viner:  “Where is all that damn snow coming from?”

US Submarine breaks through ice in Beaufort Sea March 17.

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Astronomer announces he has discovered … Mars

I haven’t seen a discovery like this since the Met Office were rolling out excuses for cold winters (oh look it’s the Jetstream and the Atlantic) 😝

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Mars [image credit: NASA]
As banana skins go, this is a good one. Bad luck, professor!

In an online publication, this astronomer reports the detection of a very bright object in the night sky that wasn’t there before. Turns out, he’s thousands of years late for this discovery, says LiveScience.

Astronomer Peter Dunsby just made a groundbreaking discovery, after noticing a very bright “star” pop up in his field of view at an observatory at the University of Cape Town that was not present two weeks prior.

Too bad Dunsby was perhaps thousands of years late … the bright object was the planet Mars.

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