Nigel Lawson to Climate Morons ‘Cool it’

Lord Lawson takes direct aim at Slingo [my emphasis]

The unusual persistence of heavy rainfall over the UK during February, which led to considerable flooding, is believed by the scientists to have been caused by the wayward behaviour of the jetstream; and there is no credible scientific theory that links this behaviour to the fact that the earth’s surface is some 0.8ºC warmer than it was 150 years ago.

That has not stopped some climate scientists, such as the publicity-hungry chief scientist at the UK Met Office, Dame Julia Slingo, from telling the media that it is likely that “climate change” (by which they mean warming) is partly to blame. Usually, however, the climate scientists take refuge in the weasel words that any topical extreme weather event, whatever the extreme weather may be, whether the recent UK rainfall or last year’s typhoon in the Philippines, “is consistent with what we would expect from climate change”.

So what? It is also consistent with the theory that it is a punishment from the Almighty for our sins (the prevailing explanation of extreme weather events throughout most of human history). But that does not mean that there is the slightest truth in it. Indeed, it would be helpful if the climate scientists would tell us what weather pattern would not be consistent with the current climate orthodoxy. If they cannot do so, then we would do well to recall the important insight of Karl Popper — that any theory that is incapable of falsification cannot be considered scientific.

read the rest here.

climate change’ is the exact opposite of what the Met Office predict and whatever the weather we experience – especially the bits not within a Goldilocks definition of what it should be – we’re going to get more of it and YOU’RE TO BLAME.

Rinse and repeat the excuses whatever the weather.

https://craigm350.wordpress.com/2014/02/16/uk-met-office-cheaters-never-prosper/

also check out Paul Homewood’s inconvenient finding on 1929 – The Year The Met Office Tried To Cover Up

I found similarities also in the wet winter of 1876/7, which was remarkably similar and a year of ‘global weirding‘ extremes. 1877 was a ‘bit windy‘, as Paul Homewood noted.

Then there’s the winter of 1976/7 in the UK (post on 76/7 in the works), which featured a displaced polar vortex over North America and followed a similar hot summer.

http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/09/11/comparison-of-the-summers-of-1976-and-2013/

You could even look back further

https://craigm350.wordpress.com/2014/02/16/floodplains-the-clue-is-in-the-name/

https://craigm350.wordpress.com/2014/02/15/climate-change-realism/

Met Office in last minute warning

I checked the forecast this morning and knew rain was due but not this much!
image

Seeing how heavy the rain was it was obvious there was a risk of flash flooding.

image

As can be seen there are several areas of very heavy precipitation scattered around the South East, some in excess of 50mm p/hr.

image

Key to intensity

There was no Met Office warning either last night (BBC forecast) or earlier this morning. A quick look at their site showed a yellow warning in force although not clear on detail as the text was missing (the mobile site had clearly not updated).

image

The desktop site did however have the information.

image

Yep. The warning was issued SEVEN minutes before it came into effect.

1929 – The Year The Met Office Tried To Cover Up

Very striking indeed.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

Readers of this blog will be well aware that by far the wettest 3-month period on record in the UK was not this winter, as the Met Office would like you to believe, but November 1929 to January 1930.

During those three months. a total of 554mm fell across the UK, compared with 531mm this winter. (October 1929 was also very wet – the October to December total that year was 553mm).

As I also pointed out previously, the wet winter of 1929 followed a remarkably dry first nine months of the year.

I have across this paper by Lily Winchester of the University of Liverpool, written in 1930, entitled “The Abnormal Weather of 1929”, which shows what a remarkable year it was.

index

http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/40559675?uid=3738032&uid=322553173&uid=2134&uid=2&uid=70&uid=3&uid=60&sid=21104048882663

After describing the cold start to the year and hot, dry spring and summer, she moves onto wet end to the…

View original post 125 more words

Is there a ‘shape’ to atmospheric circulation during low solar periods?

image

Based on a comment over at Weather Action

I’ve been looking into the 76/77 N hemisphere winter as well. Steven Goddard flagged up the similarities with this past winter & how the shape of the polar vortex was like theshape of the Laurentide ice sheet which sat over NAmerica during the Younger Dryas (including Alaska being ice free). Interestingly there was a tongue of sea extending this year off the coast of Labrador & Newfoundland. The winter that followed in 77/78 was notable indeed. I’m gathering more detail for a post, but it’s made me wonder is this the ‘shape’ of lower solar activity?

Piers Corbyn replied

Your+Steve Goddard’s point about the shape of that great Laurentide ice sheet which sat over N America in ‘the Younger Dryas’ period is very important. Question; was cold distribution in Maunder and Dalton similar or not?

The Maunder period will be difficult to infer due to the sparse records on both sides of the Atlantic but a fair degree of work has been done by the likes of Lamb. Things do improve by the Dalton onwards. This is the start of a few posts to investigate a possible shape

of low solar activity, that is a change in the shape of the upper air circulation.

“The late Prof HH Lamb, a world renowned climatologist, investigated the impact of the Little Ice Age on Scotland for part of his book Climate History and the Modern World. He wrote of arctic ice expanding further south and of reports of Inuit people arriving on Orkney between 1690 and 1728. One was said to have paddled down the River Don in Aberdeen. Snow remained all year round on the tops of mountains, including the Cairngorms…With weather patterns disrupted, fierce were winds battered the land.”

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/highlands_and_islands/8010513.stm
image

This period was also characterized by an anomalous winter atmospheric circulation over the circum-Atlantic region in the form of a tri-pole pattern.

Reconstructions of winter sea-level pressure (SLP) indicate that over Europe an anomalous low was found over the Balkan area and an anomalous high just south of Iceland (Luterbacher et al.,
2002). Over eastern North America, somewhat east of the Hudson bay, an anomalous low was found extending into the subtropics (Lamb and Johnson, 1959; van der Schrier and Barkmeijer, 2005). This latter low deepens the existing trough in SLP over the Newfoundland- Labrador area.

The Gulf Stream and Atlantic sea-surface temperatures in AD1790–1825

G. van der Schrier* and S. L. Weber

International Journal of Climatology

Volume 30, Issue 12, October 2010

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.2027/full

The following images reflect mean pressure values (see second image for key).
image

image

Note on images. These are all taken from “On the nature of certain climactic epochs which differed from the modern (1900-39) normal” H.H.Lamb published in 1963 and reproduced in “The Changing Climate. Selected Papers” (1963) Routledge Revivals.

In the next a later post I’ll take a closer look at 1976/7, before returning to earlier periods LIA periods again.

This will be hosted at the WeatherAction News Blog

Weatherbell 2014 Hurricane forecast

We have been in awe at the lack of activity near the East Coast over the last 20 years, given the similar cycle to the 1950s. While Irene and Sandy have drawn significant attention, they were nothing compared to the meteorological mayhem of the 1950s or the intensity of 1938 and 1944. There is nothing to prohibit another Sandy-type hit from the southeast or three storms up the East Coast in one year despite a relatively low number of named storms in a season. The benchmark year on the eastern seaboard, 1954, had well below normal tropical activity in the deep tropics, with only Hazel being a strong storm south of 20°N, so there is strong historical support for the ECMWF’s idea.

You can read the full forecast at:

http://www.weatherbell.com/2014-hurricane-season-forecast