Watch “Piers Corbyn: The Reality of Long Range Weather and Climate Forecasting | Electric Universe 2014”

Some of the comments;

Robert W. (subscriber, Toronto, Canada)

Excellent presentation on Thunderbolts Piers, comedy gold

Steve Devine (subscriber, Essex, England)

informative and amusing as ever

Maria (subscriber, Ireland)

Great vid Piers, i appreciate your work  […] I think I learnt more in that video (watched twice may need to watch again 🙂 than an entire school year in science and geography class!-) loved the humour too and really just the real approach to evidence based facts makes for better understanding…

And special thanks to Richard (subscriber, East Midlands) for highlighting the video itself;

u might get a statue outside the Royal Society in 300 years 🙂

Full comments/reaction, latest news here and here

What ‘Global Warming’ looks like in 2014

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Though North America is a full month into astronomical spring, the Great Lakes have been 

slow to give up on winter. As of April 22, 2014, the Great Lakes were 33.9 percent ice covered.The lake they call Superior dominated the pack.

In the early afternoon on April 20, 2014, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this natural-color image of Lake Superior, which straddles the United States–Canada border. At the time Aqua passed over, the lake was 63.5 percent ice covered, according to the NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab (GLERL). Averaged across Lake Superior, ice was 22.6 centimeters (8.9 inches) thick; it was as much as twice that thickness in some locations.

full report here

h/t CarlT

CO2 – A Cycle of Excuses

The following passage is by former Met Office supremo Hubert Lamb. Published at the height of the global warming scare – ironically just before the onset of ‘The pause [which] is a grand ‘whodunnit’ at the edge of our scientific understanding –  Lamb made the polar opposite view of current Met Office Chief Scientist, Julia Slingo. Remember this when we are told the debate is over and you find your voice is censored.

In 1896 the Swedish scientist, Sv. Arrhenius, professor of physics first at Uppsala and later in Stockholm, published his suggestion that increasing the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, as was already happening relentlessly, should be expected to warm world climates because of its absorption—i.e capture—of long-wave radiation that continually goes out from the Earth and so create a sort of ‘greenhouse effect’. And in 1938 in England G S Callendar seemed to show in a paper in the Royal Meteorological Society’s journal that the observed warming of surface temperatures over the Earth by about half a degree Celsius from around 1890 to the 1930s should be about right to be attributable to the radiation trapped in the atmosphere in this way. But there are some difficult points. Water vapour, which is abundant in the atmosphere except over the coldest regions of the Earth and in the stratosphere, also absorbs radiation and on almost al the same wave-lengths that the carbon dioxide absorbs.

Difficulties, too, beset attempts to show how variations in the amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in the past fit the theory that warm periods in world climate can be attributed to a greater CO2 content and cold periods to a lower CO2 amount. The CO2 content at various past times is presumably indicated by the gas trapped in bubbles in ice-sheets and glaciers. This does show less CO2 in glacial times, and during warmer interglacial periods the CO2 amount were greater. But, since carbon dioxide is more soluble in water—in the oceans for example—when temperatures are lower, the smaller amounts of CO2 in the bubbles in the ice sheets in ice age times could be just a result of the colder climates then prevailing. And, even within our own times, the suggestion that the increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere should be presumed to be the cause of the warming does not fit at all well with the sequence of observed values.

The great period of warming, at least in the northern hemisphere, was during the first 40 years of the 20th century (especially the first and fourth decades), but in the 1950s and 1960s when the CO2 was increasing more rapidly than ever before the prevailing temperatures were falling. Callendar himself was worried by this discrepancy and contacted both me and Professor Gordon Manley about it. There seem, in fact, to have been a number of shorter runs of sometimes up to 50 years with either rising or falling temperatures often setting in suddenly, and with no clear correspondence to changes in the atmospheric CO2 content.We also see that account must be taken of psychological reactions—even in the influential research community—to the variations towards greater or less warmth as and when they occur.

In the 1880s and 1890s, as a recent American meteorological investigator was the first to be able to show, world temperatures were lower than they had been since around 1850. That was just when Arrhenius came out with his suggestion that the man-made increase of carbon dioxide should be warming the Earth. And at that time the suggestion made little impact. When Callendar promoted the same idea 40 years later, however, it was in a warmer world, though very soon the bitter war winters came and implanted themselves in folk’s memories. And when G N Plass again put forward the CO2warming theory in papers published in 1954 and 1956, world climate was once more entering a colder phase, particularly in the northern hemisphere. Interest in the theory soon waned. It only revived after a run of up to 8 mild winters in a row affected much of Europe and parts of North America in the 1970s and 1980s. There then came a tremendous preponderance of publications on global warming, dominating the research literature, although over-all temperature averages in some regions, particularly in the Arctic, were still moving downward.

So, in spite of the sharp turn towards warming after 1987-8, and the undeniably very warm years 1989-91 and 1995, one must feel uneasy about the confidence with which global warming has been publicised as the verdict of science in official pronouncements from many quarters. The erratic course of the changes experienced through the 20thcentury surely suggests that there are processes at work which are still not adequately understood and possibly even some influences that have not yet been identified.[1997, p217-19]

h/t Enthusiasm, Scepticism and Science / Bishop Hill

UK Met Office – Cheaters never Prosper

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Met Office winter forecast December-January-February issued 21st November 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/m/8/A3_plots-precip-DJF-2.pdf

The probability that UK precipitation for December-January-February will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 25% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest category is around 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

CONTEXT:
Met Office 3-month Outlook
Period: December 2013 – February 2014

Issue date: 21.11.13
As discussed in the temperature section, forecast models favour a negative NAO pattern this winter, with high pressure areas more likely to be centred over or close to the UK. As in all seasons, this pre-dominance of anticyclones is likely to lead to drier-than-normal conditions across the country.

HpaWinter_DJF_13_14

Winter 2013/14 daily pressure values (local station).
Figures for the South and West coasts will be considerably lower
[N.B. standard normal sea level pressure (SLP) is 1013.2 millibars]


The weakening of the prevailing westerly flow means that the normally wetter western or northwestern parts of the country may see a significant reduction in precipitation compared to average, while the east or southeast may be closer to average. However uncertainty in this regional pattern of precipitation is large.

2014_1_Rainfall_Anomaly_1981-2010

Rainfall as a percentage of average for January 2014
Image UK Met Office

With colder-than-normal conditions being favoured, as indicated in the temperature section, the probabilities for precipitation falling as snow and for occurrence of ice this winter will be higher than the climatological values.

2014_1_GroundFrost_Anomaly_1981-2010

The deeper the red the less days with ground frost.
Image UK Met Office

The forecast is now put into context.

[UPDATE: I have slightly rearranged this post so the Met Office winter 2013/14 is at the head. The rest of the post is quite lengthy detailing several previous years of forecasts but is an easy read. It has several images also so may take time to load on slower devices.]  

Continue reading

Further Winter Thoughts

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Image N.A.S.A.

Rather than update my previous rambling, here’s some further thoughts on this winter and beyond [although I subscribe to WeatherAction these are my own independent thoughts, although they do rely on solar and lunar interactions. I put them out there so I can look back and see if they have any merit].

Firstly it’s interesting that many forecasters went with a mild November. I didn’t see that at all Continue reading

Max Temperature Irrelevance

According to a local station on wunderground, local daytime temps exceeded 28C, reaching a high of just under 35C which would be an all time record if the station was any where near the established standard. On average the wunderground stations are 2-3C above official Met Office weather stations, due to siting issues and massive UHI from an abundance of concrete and asphalt.  As it is, over at Tallbloke’s Talkshop Tim Channon has spent a long time looking at official stations, hardly pristine sites, and found them wanting. The Met Office have made much of this recent spell of high pressure heat, running updates on their site about the “highest temperature this year”.

tchannon on July 25, 2013 at 5:57 pm

Met Office: -Weather report

High temperatures in July.The United Kingdom saw a prolonged period of high temperatures between Saturday 6 July and Thursday 24 July. A maximum temperature of 28 C or more was recorded at one or more location on each of those 19 days. The last time the UK saw such a long period of hot weather was August 1997 which also had a 19 day run of high temperatures. Temperatures are not expected to reach 28 C today. Issued at 1032 on Thu 25 Jul 2013.

So they are using a magical 28C as a marker.

Bit of bother there… they ain’t got no consistent stations nor equipment.How about revealing the raw evidence, all of it?

I concur. Hot yes but within expected parameters for these shores.

This is the past four days of local station data of dubious quality but still useful to see changes. The thick blue line is to show the time above 80F and the ‘amplitude’ change as the heat and clear skies were broken by storms which came 22nd- although it did not rain until here until the early hours of the 25th* although other localised storms have passed passed close enough to see, hear and smell.

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* the system of storms coming from N France appeared, on the radar, to split along the M3 with energy diverted mostly to the West with some East towards North and West London. This picture is looking West. Most of the real action followed a few hours later, this was merely the scouting party.

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There were originally three  building in the area circled which were sheared off. The two almost verticle spears of cloud (left of circle) seem to show the wind shear which may be due to topography or general instability. I’m inclined to the former causing the later based on previous storm systems clipping. The day started with a NNE flow which drifted to SW with the arrival of the weather system pictured.