Lassen and Thejll: “close correlation found between solar activity and Arctic Ocean climate.”

Tallbloke's Talkshop

From the HockeyShctick, via GWPF:

A paper published by the Danish Meteorological Institute finds a remarkable correlation of Arctic sea ice observations over the past 500 years to “the solar cycle length, which is a measure of solar activity. A close correlation (R=0.67) of high significance (0.5 % probability of a chance occurrence) is found between the two patterns, suggesting a link from solar activity to the Arctic Ocean climate.”

The paper adds to several others demonstrating that Arctic sea ice extent and climate is controlled by natural variations in solar activity, ocean & atmospheric oscillations, winds & storm activity, not man-made CO2.

Solar Cycle Length [SCL] shown by dotted line, Koch sea ice extent index from observations in the Greenland Sea shown by solid line.

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Australia Borrows Hansen’s Pink Crayon


By Paul Homewood




In their article about a WMO report, the Age inform us that the Bureau of Meteorology had to add extra colours to its charts during Australia’s record summer of heat.

As the map shows, the purple patch sits over South Australia. So how hot was it there last summer?


It appears, much cooler than the record summer of 2000, and not even as hot as the summer of 1938.

I wonder how they managed without a pink crayon then?

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Tungurahua –Eruption 14 July 2013


Thank you to Chryphia and Renato Rio for finding lots of information on Tungurahua, including   the Instituto Geofísico Escuela Politécnica Nacional (IGEPN)’s excellent website.

Tungurahua woke nearby residents with an explosive eruption at 11:51 UTC (06:51 am local time) on Sunday 14 July 2013 (VA report [1]).  The eruption could be heard as far away as Guayaquil .  The initial eruption column reached an altitude of 5.1km.   A few hours later the column was observed to have reached 8.3 km.   The ash cloud drifted northwest, north and northeast of the volcano.   Pyroclastic flows were produced, including one down the ravine of Achupashal on the west side of the volcano.  Ash fell on towns close to the volcano.

Here is the seismogram showing the onset of the eruption:

About Tungurahua

Tungurahua (5,023m) is an andesitic-dactitic stratovolcano located in the Cordillera Real in the Andes Mountains, Ecuador.  The…

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The Inflating Earth – Sea Level


The concept of “sea level” is a curious beast because the oceans aren’t level.

ocean topography

This irregular “sea level” is also continuously moving.

The M2 tidal constituent

However, after about nineteen years it is possible to calculate the Local Mean Sea Level for a given location provided everything else remains constant.

Local mean sea level (LMSL) is defined as the height of the sea with respect to a land benchmark, averaged over a period of time (such as a month or a year) long enough that fluctuations caused by waves and tides are smoothed out.

Nineteen years is preferred because the Earth, moon and sun’s relative positions repeat almost exactly in the Metonic cycle of 19 years, which is long enough to include the 18.613 year lunar nodal tidal constituent.

Unfortunately, not everything remains constant.

The Earth’s surface rises and falls vertically.
The Earth’s crust stretches and compresses horizontally.
The volume…

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Newsbytes: Sun’s Bizarre Activity May Trigger Another Little Ice Age (Or Not)

Watts Up With That?

From the GWPF and Dr. Benny Peiser

“Weakest Solar Cycle In Almost 200 Years”

The sun is acting bizarrely and scientists have no idea why. Solar activity is in gradual decline, a change from the norm which in the past triggered a 300-year-long mini ice age. We are supposed to be at a peak of activity, at solar maximum. The current situation, however, is outside the norm and the number of sunspots seems in steady decline. The sun was undergoing “bizarre behaviour” said Dr Craig DeForest of the society. “It is the smallest solar maximum we have seen in 100 years,” said Dr David Hathaway of Nasa. –Dick Ahlstrom, The Irish Times, 12 July 2013

Illustration mapping the steady decline in sunspot activity over the last two solar cycles with predicted figures for the current cycle 24

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Central Park in USHCNv2.5 (October 2012) magically becomes cooler in July in the Dust Bowl years

Watts Up With That?

By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM

Remember this story long ago on New York’s Central Park multiple very different data sets to which Steve McIntyre responded here. McIntyre wrote then:

…has the temperature of New York City increased in the past 50 years? Figure 1 below is excerpted from their note, about which they observed.

Note the adjustment was a significant one (a cooling exceeding 6 degrees from the mid 1950s to the mid 1990s.) Then inexplicably the adjustment diminished to less than 2 degrees …The result is what was a flat trend for the past 50 years became one with an accelerated warming in the past 20 years. It is not clear what changes in the metropolitan area occurred in the last 20 years to warrant a major adjustment to the adjustment. The park has remained the same and there has not been a population decline but a spurt in…

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How Good Are Met Office Predictions? (Now Includes at Least May Data)

Watts Up With That?

Image Credit:

Guest Post By Werner Brozek, Edited By Just The Facts

“We are now using the system to predict changes out to 2014. By the end of this period, the global average temperature is expected to have risen by around 0.3 °C compared to 2004, and half of the years after 2009 are predicted to be hotter than the current record hot year, 1998.” Met Office Hadley Centre 2007

“The Met Office Hadley Centre has the highest concentration of absolutely outstanding people who do absolutely outstanding work, spanning the breadth of modelling, attribution, and data analysis, of anywhere in the world.” Dr Susan Solomon, Co Chair IPCC AR4 WGI

So let us see how “absolutely outstanding” the Met Office Hadley Centre’s 2007 prediction is turning out.

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