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Extreme Weather in 1759

A diary recording Bath’s weather, written by a clergyman about 250 years ago, has been found by archivists.

 

The parchment notebook belonged to Reverend Duel Taylor whose tiny writing recorded the city’s weather every day for six years between 1756 and 1761.

 

An entry in December 1759 shows extreme weather was not unusual with the the river “frozen so hard” people had to “walk across it for three days past”.

 

It was found among papers of Bath’s town clerks.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-28170538

The Central England Temperature for December 1759 was 2.5C, about -2.1C below the 1961-1990 average.

h/t JunkScience

China Demand $100 Billion While They Continue To Increase Emissions

Originally posted on NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT:

By Paul Homewood

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http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/09/24/climate-change-china-rebuts-obama/

Fox report:

While President Obama challenged China at the United Nations to follow the U.S. lead in pushing for drastic reductions in national carbon emissions to save the planet from “climate change,” it appears that China has dramatically different ideas. As in: no.

According to a document deposited at the Geneva-based U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in advance of a planned meeting next month, China — now the world’s largest source of greenhouse gases — insists that the U.S. and other developed countries endure most of the economic pain of carbon emission cutbacks, and need to make significantly more sacrifices in the months ahead.

Carbon emission cutbacks by China and other developing countries, the document says, will be “dependent on the adequate finance and technology support provided by developed country parties” to any new climate accord.

In other words, only if Western nations pay…

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Jennifer Francis Ignores The Evidence Of The Past

Originally posted on NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT:

By Paul Homewood

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http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn26278-crazy-weather-traced-to-arctics-impact-on-jet-stream.html#.VCgmrxawSpO

Jennifer Francis continues to push her “global warming will lead to colder winters” nonsense, even though NOAA’s own (admittedly adjusted and homogenised) data tells the exact opposite.

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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/cei/graph/2/01-12

New Scientist carry this latest report:

The rapid retreat of Arctic sea ice caused by climate change may be to blame for more frequent prolonged spells of extreme weather in Europe, Asia and North America, such as heat waves, freezing temperatures or storms.

These are relatively short-term periods of bizarre weather, like the cold snap that paralysed North America earlier this year, rather than longer-term rises in temperature.

They are related to “stuck” weather patterns, Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University in New Brunswick, New Jersey, told a conference on Arctic sea ice reduction in London on 23 September. “Is it global warming? I think it’s safe to answer yes,” she told the meeting.

Francis said…

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THE ONGOING ARCHIVES —DMI MAPS—

craigm350:

Thanks Caleb. I’ll be putting these into gifs.

Originally posted on Sunrise's Swansong:

This post will simply be a presentation of the Danish Meteorological Institutes arctic maps, with the most recent at the the top. I find that simply by scanning the maps one is able to create a sort of mental animation of what is occurring at the Pole, in terms of temperatures and weather.

During the winter  one is wise to keep an eye cocked to the north, and to be aware when the arctic is discharging in your direction. As a very general rule, when the Pole is importing air to your north you are more liable to get a thaw, and when it is exporting air to  your north you are more liable to get a freeze..

There are of course subtleties that make that rule look foolish. Part of the fun is noting what can divert the cold air, or retard it. However one thing I have noted…

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The Royal Society & the Scottish Referendum

Originally posted on NoFrakkingConsensus:

Why did a scientific organization issue a statement about the Scottish independence vote?

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click for source

The Royal Society, the world’s oldest scientific academy, is supposed to be about science. When one of its officials gets quoted, we naively imagine that Science – with a capital “S” – has spoken.

But the past few presidents of the Royal Society have demonstrated little ability to erect a firewall between their own personal views and precise, scrupulous science.

I can image no better illustration of this than the fact that Paul Nurse, its current president, thought it appropriate, prudent, and wise to issue a public statement in the wake of last week’s referendum on Scottish independence.

What was this man thinking? Why would he go near that nakedly political topic with a ten-foot pole?

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BACKGROUND
Again and again in the climate debate, we’re told that prestigious organizations such as the…

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Mike’s NYT trick

Originally posted on Climate Audit:

There still seems to be a lot of confusion among Mann’s few remaining supporters as to why Phil Jones credited the “trick of adding in the real temps” to Mann’s Nature article (MBH98). Today I will review that topic.

Let’s first see what the Great Master himself says about the issue in his book of Fairy Tales:

In reality, neither “trick” nor “hide the decline” was referring to recent warming, but rather the far more mundane issue of how to compare proxy and instrumental temperature records. Jones was using the word trick in the same sense — to mean a clever approach — that I did in describing how in high school I figured out how to teach a computer to play tic-tac-toe or in college how to solve a model for high temperature superconductivity. He was referring, specifically, to an entirely legitimate plotting device for comparing two datasets

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Gales across the British Isles 1871-2014

Originally posted on xmetman:

I’ve been reading some papers recently about the storminess of the weather across western Europe and the UK, and attempts to measure it using the objective Lamb Weather Type data set that is maintained by the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. I know about the dataset and have blogged about the creation of a “storm catalogue” before, so I though I would take another look specifically to look at the “gale index” by creating three graphs:

  • The first is a bar chart of the total number of days for a period with a gale index that is greater than 30 (which equates to a gale at 55°N and 5°W as far as I understand it), along with the obligatory moving average and linear trend.
  • The second chart is another bar chart with the mean gale index for the period, again accompanied by a moving…

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The Met Office – The Lies of Ommission

craigm350:

If they put forward a reasoning, it can be debated. The silence is rather telling.

Originally posted on the WeatherAction News Blog:

This comment is awaiting moderation. They may not release because it’s a reblog comment (understandable ~ish) …or because it’s associated with WeatherAction and Piers Corbyn is one of their fiercest critics, according to the Independent anyway.

This is what I thought was a reasonable comment

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Even the BBC mentioned the Antarctic on the 22nd September [emphasis added];

Computer models are doing a better job at forecasting the losses [in the Arctic] but they still underestimate the changes that are occurring.

In the Antarctic, the research problem is a very different one.

This austral winter will be the third year in a row that sea-ice extent has reached a satellite-era maximum, and it is the first time that this record has jumped above 20 million sq km.

Traditionally, the greatest cover is not reached until early October, so there should be time for the south to accumulate even more marine cover.

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Quote of the Week – models, climate sensitivity, the pause, and psychology

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

There’s a saying that “even a blind squirrel will find a nut occasionally”, and while I don’t think of Steven Mosher as anywhere close to a blind squirrel, he does have the habit of posting comments on climate blogs that appear sometimes as staccato and drive by style incomplete. I attribute that to trying to use a smartphone when a desktop and keyboard is really needed. This time, he’s produced a comment that is in my opinion, a home-run, because it cleanly and linearly sums up the issue of models, climate sensitivity, and “the pause”, along with a  dash of psychology thrown in about the value of model based approaches to climate sensitivity compared to observational based approaches.

He writes on Judith Curry’s blog:

it [the new Lewis and Curry paper] wont change much.. But the longer the pause…

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Old-wives summer

craigm350:

Really interesting to see (and the old wives explanation). Thanks Bruce.

Originally posted on xmetman:

Devon Sunrise

Devon Sunrise

On the last day of Summer I though it might be an idea to look at what kind of weather patterns we can expect in Britain at the time of the Autumn equinox. The first three weeks of September 2014 have so far been very anticyclonic, and I’ve already written a couple of blogs about that and comparisons to the September of 1959.

According to Hubert Lamb (who devised the classification that took his name) the period between September 5th and September 30th coincides with a singularity known as the “old-wives Summer”, with a peak of anticyclonic weather types occurring in Britain between the 7th and 10th, 16th and 21st, and the 30th of September.

I can now dig a little bit deeper into this because, courtesy of the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, we now have considerably more years of Lamb Weather Type…

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