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The ‘Dirty’ Politics of the IPCC

The BBC's headline response to the latest IPCC report. 

The BBC’s headline response to the latest IPCC report.

Erika Johnsen at HotAir has a good summary of the whole PR exercise that is the latest IPCC report

The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change finally did their big reveal on Sunday of the already-leaked third installment of their four-part climate-change report jointly composed by every big-wig climate scientist, progressive economist, and globalist politician they can scrape together, and surprise: It includes just about every type of dire warning and urgent recommendation we’ve been hearing for decades on decades now. Nutshell version: The world is only a matter of years away from all-consuming calamity, but if every country could just bite the bullet and immediately commit to aggressively decelerating their own domestic economies in concert with global standards, things just might work out for humanity. http://hotair.com/archives/2014/04/14/united-nations-its-not-too-late-to-save-the-planet-but-only-if-everybody-immediately-does-everything-we-tell-them-to/

Whilst to some extent there are reasons for hope, the language is still coated with the kind of repeated alarmist fantasies wheeled out from time immemorial only instead of existing in chicken entrails they exist in computer models programmed by those paid by the prophesy – presumably the more ‘alarming’ the report the higher the fee. This from the beeb report…

“Driven by a global increase in population and economic activity, global surface temperature increases will be between 3.7C and 4.8C in 2100 if no new action is taken.”

95% of Climate Models Agree: The Observations Must be Wrong February 7th, 2014 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

95% of Climate Models Agree: The Observations Must be Wrong
February 7th, 2014 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

Since coming out of the LIA over a hundred years ago we have warmed by roughly~1C and in the past ~30yrs the rate is 0.35C (roughly +1.2C/century) whilst CO2 emissions continued to rise. This is in contrast to low end computer predictions of 1.5C per century, so to warm to the rate of 3.7-4.8C per century is the same as a politician repeatedly barking on about ‘green shoots of recovery in the middle of an economic recession – or running around telling everyone the sky is falling. The failure of the models is evident as shown in Dr Roy Spencer’s chart (above) and the failure of logic is that it is not unprecedented or alarming. Lord Monckton of Brenchley points to the ‘global warming’ trend from 1663 to 1762

The rate of warming was 0.9 Cº, and that rate occurred over 100 years rather than the 124 years 1880-2013 covered by Lovejoy’s statement that 0.9 Cº was a “huge” temperature increase. And it was entirely natural warming. As Professor Lovejoy might put it, it is 99.9% certain that we were not to blame.

 http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/04/13/earth-to-lovejoy-0-9-c-in-a-century-is-not-huge/

Hubert Lamb said in 1958 [my emphasis]

We in Britain do not (most of us) live near the climactic margins of our type of civilisation.The changes of the figures in the climactic tables from one period to another do not look very impressive . Nevertheless, they are significant in various respects, affecting for instance the geographical limits of cod and herring and birds and the thriving of crop plants and trees. With some of these the response to climactic shifts is very quick. The winter climate in Finland in the 1930s was no severer than that of Denmark in the last century. The winter climate of London in 1780-1820 was about the same as that of the Rhineland in our times. The summer climate of southern England (as far north as the line from the Fens to Hereford) in the early Middle Ages was similar to that of the Paris-Touraine region of northern France nowadays : between 1930 and 1949 our summer climate again approached this level (and I believe peach trees and other southern varieties did well accordingly) but since 1950 the figures in summer, as in winter, are back to late nineteenth century standards. We do not know whether the latest turn in our climactic fortunes, since the optimum years of the 1930s, marks the beginning of a serious downward trend or whether it is merely another wobble – one more of the semi-regular oscillations on a time scale of 20 to 60 years. There have been other striking ‘ameliorations’ before – even during the Little Ice Age : the mild periods around the 1630s, 1730s, 1770s and 1840s must have been quite impressive. [1]

Adding the 1990s to the above we have a further striking ‘amelioration’ – that coincided during a time of rising CO2 levels. We now appear to be heading into a period of global cooling, although to what degree is uncertain. The problem with believing CO2 is the controlling factor in climate clouds the mind to having any degree of perspective. If CO2 controls the climate you can ignore all the other factors, something which time and again has bitten the Met Office hard in the ass. It means you ignore the ocean oscillations and the Jetstream, which you later rely on as a get out clause for your failed predictions/projections – which everyone else not deluded with CO2 mania already knew. I repeat a quote by Hubert Lamb from a previous post [again my emphasis]

The great period of warming, at least in the northern hemisphere, was during the first 40 years of the 20th century (especially the first and fourth decades), but in the 1950s and 1960s when the CO2 was increasing more rapidly than ever before the prevailing temperatures were falling. Callendar himself was worried by this discrepancy and contacted both me and Professor Gordon Manley about it. There seem, in fact, to have been a number of shorter runs of sometimes up to 50 years with either rising or falling temperatures often setting in suddenly, and with no clear correspondence to changes in the atmospheric CO2 content. We also see that account must be taken of psychological reactions—even in the influential research community—to the variations towards greater or less warmth as and when they occur. [...] in spite of the sharp turn towards warming after 1987-8, and the undeniably very warm years 1989-91 and 1995, one must feel uneasy about the confidence with which global warming has been publicised as the verdict of science in official pronouncements from many quarters.The erratic course of the changes experienced through the 20th century surely suggests that there are processes at work which are still not adequately understood and possibly even some influences that have not yet been identified.

Probably the key message we should be taking, one that is well lost in the race to throw more money on ‘limiting’ carbon emissions, providing vast subsidies for unreliable renewable and preparation for a warmer, drier Mediterranean climate in Northern Europe that never came,  is believing the ‘amelioration’ would continue and basing our lives on that assumption. In April it is often warm and sunny, so a visitor to these Isles may be fooled into leaving the jacket at home, whilst those of us with more experience rarely leave the home without it to hand. Lamb makes an interesting observation that lies at the heart of how we should base our future planning for our changing climate;

I have always thought it a misfortune that the general introduction of plumbing into British homes coincided with the quite unusual run of mild winters between 1896 and 1936. And possibly some of the modern glass architecture and the hill-top sites with an open south-west aspect which became so desirable a few years ago seem less to be recommended in the 1950s. [1]

REFERENCES

[1] HH Lamb - The Changing Climate (Routledge Revivals): Selected Papers Note – the paper was ‘The changing climate, past and present; which appeared in Weather, October 1958, Vol 145, pp. 299-318

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The Great Global Weirding of 1876/7

Paul Homewood has an interesting post on the wet and windy spell of winter 1876/77,  part of a series highlighting previous precedented periods of ‘unusual’ rainfall and storminess . Whilst reading the British Rainfall Publication for 1877 that he highlighted, I was struck by the similarity in the storm patterns, from the relentless succession of storms, gales and heavy rainfall to the short lulls between. This Times report from December 3 1876 notes how at one point during one storm “the mercury has fallen below 29 inches [982 mb] in all of the Kingdom”

Times_4Dec1876 Continue reading

7.2 magnitude earthquake strikes northwest of Acapulco, Mexico

Originally posted on The Extinction Protocol :

Mexico 7.2 April 18th
April 2014MEXICOA powerful magnitude-7.2 earthquake shook central and southern Mexico on Friday, sending panicked people into the streets, where broken windows and debris fell, but there were no early reports of major damage or casualties. The U.S. Geological Survey said it was centered northwest of the Pacific resort of Acapulco, where many Mexicans are vacationing for the Easter holiday. It was felt across at least a half-dozen states and Mexico’s capital, where it shook for at least 30 seconds. Around the region, there were reports of isolated and minor damage, such as fallen fences, trees and broken windows. Chilpancingo, capital of the southern state of Guerrero, where the quake was centered, reported a power outage, but service was restored after 15 minutes. In Acapulco, 59-year-old Enedina Ramirez Perez was having breakfast, enjoying the holiday with about 20 family members, when her hotel started to shake. “People…

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In the 1970’s, The Polar Vortex Was Caused By Global Cooling.

Originally posted on NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT:

By Paul Homewood

The claims that the Polar Vortex, that has brought the cold winter in the States and wet weather to Britain, is linked to global warming are based on the theory of a weaker jet stream. The idea is that,as the Arctic warms, the temperature differential between high and mid latitudes decreases. As the jet steam is powered by this differential, the theory goes, the jet stream is liable to turn from a powerful polar or zonal flow to a slower meridional one.

Just imagine a slow moving river, and think of how it meanders in comparison to a fast moving one. The theory sounds superficially attractive, until one realises that such events have occurred regularly in the past.

Back in 1975, C C Wallen, Head of the Special Environmental Applications Division of the World Meteorological Organization, had this to say about the consequences of the cooling trend…

View original 212 more words

Severe Rain, hailstorm kills 5 in Punjab, Pakistan

Originally posted on Earth Changing Extremities:

Storm Alert

Intermittent downpour followed by hailstorm, lightening played havoc in various areas of Punjab as five people were killed and scores injured in rain-related incidents.
Five people, including a teen girl, were killed in separate roof collapse incidents and lightning in Lahore, Gujranwala and Sheikhupura.
Wind storms in various cities, including Sheikhupura, Gujranwala, Kasur, Multan, Hafizabad, Gujrat, Sialkot and Layyah uprooted the trees, destroying the signboards, roofs of huts besides adversely disrupting the power supply.
Several cities were plunged into darkness due to tripping of dozen of feeders of the Lahore Electric Supply Company (LESCO).
More than 50 people were reported injured across the province in separate mishaps.
The hailstorm destroyed the ripened wheat crop in various cities of central and southern Punjab rendering heavy losses to the growers.

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Severe Hail, Dust storm kills 17 in Northern India

Originally posted on Earth Changing Extremities:

Storm Alert

At least 16 people were killed while scores others were critically wounded after hail and dust storms struck India’s northern state of Uttar Pradesh, government sources said Friday.
 
The sources added that a three-year-old died after a wall of school collapsed.
Many houses, mostly built of thatch and mud were uprooted, due to gusty winds reaching up to 75 kmph.
 
Due to hail and dust storm, hundreds of trees were uprooted and obstructed the rail tracks causing disruption of rail services in the region.
 
The storm also affected the electricity in the Uttar Pradesh and plunged 1.5 million households into darkness. 

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Is there a ‘shape’ to atmospheric circulation during low solar periods?

image

Based on a comment over at Weather Action

I’ve been looking into the 76/77 N hemisphere winter as well. Steven Goddard flagged up the similarities with this past winter & how the shape of the polar vortex was like theshape of the Laurentide ice sheet which sat over NAmerica during the Younger Dryas (including Alaska being ice free). Interestingly there was a tongue of sea extending this year off the coast of Labrador & Newfoundland. The winter that followed in 77/78 was notable indeed. I’m gathering more detail for a post, but it’s made me wonder is this the ‘shape’ of lower solar activity?

Piers Corbyn replied

Your+Steve Goddard’s point about the shape of that great Laurentide ice sheet which sat over N America in ‘the Younger Dryas’ period is very important. Question; was cold distribution in Maunder and Dalton similar or not?

The Maunder period will be difficult to infer due to the sparce records on both sides of the Atlantic but a fair degree of work has been done by the likes of Lamb. Things do improve by the Dalton onwards. This is the start of a few posts to investigate a possible shape

of low solar activity, that is a change in the shape of the upper air circulation.

“The late Prof HH Lamb, a world renowned climatologist, investigated the impact of the Little Ice Age on Scotland for part of his book Climate History and the Modern World. He wrote of arctic ice expanding further south and of reports of Inuit people arriving on Orkney between 1690 and 1728. One was said to have paddled down the River Don in Aberdeen. Snow remained all year round on the tops of mountains, including the Cairngorms…With weather patterns disrupted, fierce were winds battered the land.”

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/highlands_and_islands/8010513.stm
image

This period was also characterized by an anomalous winter atmospheric circulation over the circum-Atlantic region in the form of a tri-pole pattern.

Reconstructions of winter sea-level pressure (SLP) indicate that over Europe an anomalous low was found over the Balkan area and an anomalous high just south of Iceland (Luterbacher et al.,
2002). Over eastern North America, somewhat east of the Hudson bay, an anomalous low was found extending into the subtropics (Lamb and Johnson, 1959; van der Schrier and Barkmeijer, 2005). This latter low deepens the existing trough in SLP over the Newfoundland- Labrador area.

The Gulf Stream and Atlantic sea-surface temperatures in AD1790–1825

G. van der Schrier* and S. L. Weber

International Journal of Climatology

Volume 30, Issue 12, October 2010

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.2027/full

The following images reflect mean pressure values (see second image for key).
image

image

Note on images. These are all taken from “On the nature of certain climactic epochs which differed from the modern (1900-39) normal” H.H.Lamb published in 1963 and reproduced in “The Changing Climate. Selected Papers” (1963) Routledge Revivals.

In the next post I’ll take a closer look at 1976/7, before returning to earlier periods LIA periods again.

In the 1970’s, The Polar Vortex Was Caused By Global Cooling.

Originally posted on NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT:

By Paul Homewood

The claims that the Polar Vortex, that has brought the cold winter in the States and wet weather to Britain, is linked to global warming are based on the theory of a weaker jet stream. The idea is that,as the Arctic warms, the temperature differential between high and mid latitudes decreases. As the jet steam is powered by this differential, the theory goes, the jet stream is liable to turn from a powerful polar or zonal flow to a slower meridional one.

Just imagine a slow moving river, and think of how it meanders in comparison to a fast moving one. The theory sounds superficially attractive, until one realises that such events have occurred regularly in the past.

Back in 1975, C C Wallen, Head of the Special Environmental Applications Division of the World Meteorological Organization, had this to say about the consequences of the cooling trend…

View original 212 more words

Texas Extreme Weather – 1970’s Style

Originally posted on NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT:

By Paul Homewood

tex

Destruction in Wichita Falls, Texas after the tornado

The Texas Almanac publishes a list of extreme weather events by decade, so let’s take a trip back to the 1970’s to see what life was like in Texas when CO2 was at a safe level.

  • April 18, 1970: Tornado. Near Clarendon, Donley County. Seventeen killed, 42 injured; damage $2.1 million. Fourteen persons were killed at a resort community at Green Belt Reservoir, 7 miles north of Clarendon.
  • May 11, 1970: Tornado. Lubbock, Lubbock County. Twenty-six killed, 500 injured; damage $135 million. Fifteen square miles, almost one-quarter of the city of Lubbock, suffered damage.
  • Aug. 3–5, 1970: Hurricane Celia. Corpus Christi. Hurricane Celia was a unique but severe storm. Measured in dollars, it was the costliest in the state’s history to that time. Sustained wind speeds reached 130 mph, but it was great bursts of kinetic…

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Polar Vortex In 1936

Originally posted on NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT:

By Paul Homewood

Tabloid climatologists continue to try to blame the America’s cold winter this year on global warming, but as WUWT and Steve Goddard have pointed out, the USA had exactly the same pattern of weather in the winter of 1976/77.

screenhunter_226-apr-15-15-38

http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1899&dat=19830325&id=cAUgAAAAIBAJ&sjid=9WQFAAAAIBAJ&pg=1417,3960641

And if you go back to 1936, the second coldest winter on record in the CONUS, you also find something similar.

The GISS maps below compare the winter of 1935/6 with this year.

nmaps

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?sat=4&sst=3&type=anoms&mean_gen=1203&year1=1936&year2=1936&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=rob

nmaps

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?sat=4&sst=3&type=anoms&mean_gen=1203&year1=2014&year2=2014&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=rob

Although 1935/6 is colder, we can see very similar patterns:

  • Cold weather plunging down from the Arctic over the eastern half of the country.
  • Much warmer conditions in the West.
  • Milder air than usual over Greenland.
  • Warm weather over most of Europe.

They did not know they had a jet stream in 1936, but it still had the same effect on weather as it does now.

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Tilted planets may actually have more life favorable climate

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Odd Tilts Could Make More Worlds Habitable

Pivoting planets that lean one way and then change orientation within a short geological time period might be surprisingly habitable, according to new modeling by NASA and university scientists affiliated with the NASA Astrobiology Institute.

The climate effects generated on these wobbling worlds could prevent them from turning into glacier-covered ice lockers, even if those planets are somewhat far from their stars. And with some water remaining liquid on the surface long-term, such planets could maintain favorable conditions for life.

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