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The ‘Dirty’ Politics of the IPCC

The BBC's headline response to the latest IPCC report. 

The BBC’s headline response to the latest IPCC report.

Erika Johnsen at HotAir has a good summary of the whole PR exercise that is the latest IPCC report

The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change finally did their big reveal on Sunday of the already-leaked third installment of their four-part climate-change report jointly composed by every big-wig climate scientist, progressive economist, and globalist politician they can scrape together, and surprise: It includes just about every type of dire warning and urgent recommendation we’ve been hearing for decades on decades now. Nutshell version: The world is only a matter of years away from all-consuming calamity, but if every country could just bite the bullet and immediately commit to aggressively decelerating their own domestic economies in concert with global standards, things just might work out for humanity. http://hotair.com/archives/2014/04/14/united-nations-its-not-too-late-to-save-the-planet-but-only-if-everybody-immediately-does-everything-we-tell-them-to/

Whilst to some extent there are reasons for hope, the language is still coated with the kind of repeated alarmist fantasies wheeled out from time immemorial only instead of existing in chicken entrails they exist in computer models programmed by those paid by the prophesy – presumably the more ‘alarming’ the report the higher the fee. This from the beeb report…

“Driven by a global increase in population and economic activity, global surface temperature increases will be between 3.7C and 4.8C in 2100 if no new action is taken.”

95% of Climate Models Agree: The Observations Must be Wrong February 7th, 2014 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

95% of Climate Models Agree: The Observations Must be Wrong
February 7th, 2014 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

Since coming out of the LIA over a hundred years ago we have warmed by roughly~1C and in the past ~30yrs the rate is 0.35C (roughly +1.2C/century) whilst CO2 emissions continued to rise. This is in contrast to low end computer predictions of 1.5C per century, so to warm to the rate of 3.7-4.8C per century is the same as a politician repeatedly barking on about ‘green shoots of recovery in the middle of an economic recession – or running around telling everyone the sky is falling. The failure of the models is evident as shown in Dr Roy Spencer’s chart (above) and the failure of logic is that it is not unprecedented or alarming. Lord Monckton of Brenchley points to the ‘global warming’ trend from 1663 to 1762

The rate of warming was 0.9 Cº, and that rate occurred over 100 years rather than the 124 years 1880-2013 covered by Lovejoy’s statement that 0.9 Cº was a “huge” temperature increase. And it was entirely natural warming. As Professor Lovejoy might put it, it is 99.9% certain that we were not to blame.

 http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/04/13/earth-to-lovejoy-0-9-c-in-a-century-is-not-huge/

Hubert Lamb said in 1958 [my emphasis]

We in Britain do not (most of us) live near the climactic margins of our type of civilisation.The changes of the figures in the climactic tables from one period to another do not look very impressive . Nevertheless, they are significant in various respects, affecting for instance the geographical limits of cod and herring and birds and the thriving of crop plants and trees. With some of these the response to climactic shifts is very quick. The winter climate in Finland in the 1930s was no severer than that of Denmark in the last century. The winter climate of London in 1780-1820 was about the same as that of the Rhineland in our times. The summer climate of southern England (as far north as the line from the Fens to Hereford) in the early Middle Ages was similar to that of the Paris-Touraine region of northern France nowadays : between 1930 and 1949 our summer climate again approached this level (and I believe peach trees and other southern varieties did well accordingly) but since 1950 the figures in summer, as in winter, are back to late nineteenth century standards. We do not know whether the latest turn in our climactic fortunes, since the optimum years of the 1930s, marks the beginning of a serious downward trend or whether it is merely another wobble – one more of the semi-regular oscillations on a time scale of 20 to 60 years. There have been other striking ‘ameliorations’ before – even during the Little Ice Age : the mild periods around the 1630s, 1730s, 1770s and 1840s must have been quite impressive. [1]

Adding the 1990s to the above we have a further striking ‘amelioration’ – that coincided during a time of rising CO2 levels. We now appear to be heading into a period of global cooling, although to what degree is uncertain. The problem with believing CO2 is the controlling factor in climate clouds the mind to having any degree of perspective. If CO2 controls the climate you can ignore all the other factors, something which time and again has bitten the Met Office hard in the ass. It means you ignore the ocean oscillations and the Jetstream, which you later rely on as a get out clause for your failed predictions/projections – which everyone else not deluded with CO2 mania already knew. I repeat a quote by Hubert Lamb from a previous post [again my emphasis]

The great period of warming, at least in the northern hemisphere, was during the first 40 years of the 20th century (especially the first and fourth decades), but in the 1950s and 1960s when the CO2 was increasing more rapidly than ever before the prevailing temperatures were falling. Callendar himself was worried by this discrepancy and contacted both me and Professor Gordon Manley about it. There seem, in fact, to have been a number of shorter runs of sometimes up to 50 years with either rising or falling temperatures often setting in suddenly, and with no clear correspondence to changes in the atmospheric CO2 content. We also see that account must be taken of psychological reactions—even in the influential research community—to the variations towards greater or less warmth as and when they occur. [...] in spite of the sharp turn towards warming after 1987-8, and the undeniably very warm years 1989-91 and 1995, one must feel uneasy about the confidence with which global warming has been publicised as the verdict of science in official pronouncements from many quarters.The erratic course of the changes experienced through the 20th century surely suggests that there are processes at work which are still not adequately understood and possibly even some influences that have not yet been identified.

Probably the key message we should be taking, one that is well lost in the race to throw more money on ‘limiting’ carbon emissions, providing vast subsidies for unreliable renewable and preparation for a warmer, drier Mediterranean climate in Northern Europe that never came,  is believing the ‘amelioration’ would continue and basing our lives on that assumption. In April it is often warm and sunny, so a visitor to these Isles may be fooled into leaving the jacket at home, whilst those of us with more experience rarely leave the home without it to hand. Lamb makes an interesting observation that lies at the heart of how we should base our future planning for our changing climate;

I have always thought it a misfortune that the general introduction of plumbing into British homes coincided with the quite unusual run of mild winters between 1896 and 1936. And possibly some of the modern glass architecture and the hill-top sites with an open south-west aspect which became so desirable a few years ago seem less to be recommended in the 1950s. [1]

REFERENCES

[1] HH Lamb - The Changing Climate (Routledge Revivals): Selected Papers Note – the paper was ‘The changing climate, past and present; which appeared in Weather, October 1958, Vol 145, pp. 299-318

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The Great Global Weirding of 1876/7

Paul Homewood has an interesting post on the wet and windy spell of winter 1876/77,  part of a series highlighting previous precedented periods of ‘unusual’ rainfall and storminess . Whilst reading the British Rainfall Publication for 1877 that he highlighted, I was struck by the similarity in the storm patterns, from the relentless succession of storms, gales and heavy rainfall to the short lulls between. This Times report from December 3 1876 notes how at one point during one storm “the mercury has fallen below 29 inches [982 mb] in all of the Kingdom”

Times_4Dec1876 Continue reading

Guardian reading Eco Geeks need to smell the coffee

I noticed a ‘How green are you’ test on the Guardian website.  It’s quite telling that if you don’t agree with them you are a ‘village idiot’.
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I tried to take the test but it doesn’t work well on my Android phone meaning I was unable to answer some questions.

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Most is common sense stuff but I fail to see knowing how much energy comes from costly,  unreliable renewables makes you ‘Fit for the Future’. Regressive comes more to mind when you consider that the ‘danger’ is a theoretical one that exists only in computer models built around the group think assumptions of Guardian reading eco geeks

‘It seems that our current mitigation efforts seem to be producing no vast improvement in carbon emissions – in fact an increase in our carbon footprint – burning more coal, increased fuel poverty, driving investment away from this country to elsewhere where power is cheaper, raising the prospect of blackouts and general environmental damage.’

http://www.thegwpf.org/ipcc-science-britain-must-increase-spending-on-renewables-by-ten-times-in-next-15-years/

IPCC lead author and Professor of Economics Richard Tol, who wanted his name removed after political interference with the Summary for Policy Makers (SPM), said this today
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But then again what do we conspiracy theory addled neanderthal skeptics know?

More than Guardian reading eco-gits anyday

http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/04/22/lomborg-exposes-politicians-lies/

http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/04/23/the-davey-tax/

http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2014/04/23/stand-and-deliver-uk-energy-consumers-face-robbery-again/

http://joannenova.com.au/2014/04/want-to-stop-climate-change-happy-to-see-black-babies-die/

http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/04/18/cheer-for-fossil-fuels-on-earth-day/

Some hype sorting on the claim that Asian pollution is intensifying Pacific Storms

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Is Asian Pollution Intensifying Pacific Storms? Separating the Hype from Reality.

By Cliff Mass

The media over the past week have given a lot of play to a paper in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS)  that claims that Asian pollution is enhancing storms over the Pacific Ocean, with effects extending globally.

We are talking headlines in hundreds of major media sources around the world.  As illustrated below, the headlines have been pretty scary.  But as I will show below, the PNAS paper really proves no such thing and this situation is another example of unhealthy and counterproductive hype and exaggeration in the media.

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Climatologist Judith Curry levels both barrels against alarmist climate science

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Guest essay by Larry Hamlin

Alarmist claims: inference from incomplete, inadequate and ambiguous observations

Climate scientist Dr. Judith Curry has recently posted a number of sharply worded essays providing stinging critical rebukes of assertions of climate harm by alarmists derived from biased and highly selective reading of the UN IPCC AR5 reports.

In an April 21 posting she says the following regarding the so called ‘facts’ cited by climate alarmists to try to make a case for man made climate harm:

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Wild hailstorm destroys scores of houses near Inle Lake, Myanmar

Originally posted on Earth Changing Extremities:

Hail Formation Alert
A farmer at Tha Lae Oo village was quoted as saying he “had never experienced such a phenomenon in his lifetime”.
I22.04.14 nle Lake

The Shan State government has donated K4.6 million (about US$4,800) to victims of a powerful hailstorm that destroyed or damaged more than 140 homes near Inle Lake on April 17, the state’s Intha Ethnic Affairs Minister U Win Myint told Mizzima on April 21.

U Win Myint said K30,000 had been donated to each of the 142 households affected by the storm. He said K100,000 each had also been donated to a monastery and a middle school damaged by the storm.

Several villages were hit by the storm with the worst affected being Tha Lae Oo, where 99 houses were destroyed, he said.

At least 50 acres of paddy and 80 acres of tomatoes were destroyed, he said. There were also reports of damage to peanut crops.

A farmer…

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Damaging Storms, Tornadoes Threaten Dallas to Omaha Wednesday

Originally posted on TheSurvivalPlaceBlog:

By Kristina Pydynowski

While remaining on a localized level through Tuesday, severe weather will ramp up across the Plains on Wednesday.

The stage is being set for violent thunderstorms to line the central and southern Plains later Wednesday afternoon and night, from Nebraska to west-central Texas.

Cities in the path of the outbreak include North Platte, McCook, Omaha and Grand Island, Neb.; Dodge City and Russell, Kan.; Gage and Clinton, Okla.; and Childress, Abilene and San Angelo, Texas.

The worst of the severe weather, at this point, is expected to remain to the north and west of Wichita, Kan., but the city may still become the target of a strong and gusty thunderstorm overnight Wednesday.

“If there is no change to the current thinking, [Wednesday] will be a busy day dealing with a myriad of severe weather of all kinds, including large hail, high wind gusts as well as tornadoes,”…

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1929 – The Year The Met Office Tried To Cover Up

craigm350:

Very striking indeed.

Originally posted on NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT:

By Paul Homewood

Readers of this blog will be well aware that by far the wettest 3-month period on record in the UK was not this winter, as the Met Office would like you to believe, but November 1929 to January 1930.

During those three months. a total of 554mm fell across the UK, compared with 531mm this winter. (October 1929 was also very wet – the October to December total that year was 553mm).

As I also pointed out previously, the wet winter of 1929 followed a remarkably dry first nine months of the year.

I have across this paper by Lily Winchester of the University of Liverpool, written in 1930, entitled “The Abnormal Weather of 1929”, which shows what a remarkable year it was.

index

http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/40559675?uid=3738032&uid=322553173&uid=2134&uid=2&uid=70&uid=3&uid=60&sid=21104048882663

After describing the cold start to the year and hot, dry spring and summer, she moves onto wet end to the…

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New paper finds solar UV-B output is correlated to global mean temperature

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Map of correlations suggest it may be affecting biomass and planetary albedo.
From the Hockey Schtick :

A paper published today in Methods in Ecology and Evolution describes a new satellite dataset of solar UV-B radiation for use in ecological studies. According to the authors, “UV-B surfaces were correlated with global mean temperature and annual mean radiation data, but exhibited variable spatial associations across the globe.” The finding is notable, since climate scientists dismiss the role of the Sun in climate change by only looking at the tiny 0.1% variations in total solar irradiance [TSI] over solar cycles, ignoring the large variations in solar UV of up to 100% over solar cycles, and which according to this paper, correlates to global mean temperature. Thus, the role of the Sun and solar amplification mechanisms on climate is only at the earliest stages of understanding.

In the supplemental information (SI) I found…

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