May 2012 Joe B on Winter 2012/13

I’ll track down Joe’s actual comments but I wrote this at the time…

17 May 2012, Craig M wrote:

The sun is out but it doesn’t feel like it! Joe B calling for another cold winter – I wouldn’t bet against it! In LIA it didn’t come just in one or two years like the Met O seem to think. Did the warm summers just come in 1’s & 2’s? Thought not!

http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=453&c=5

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2013 An Active East Coast Hurricaine Season

Mark Vogan suggested this could be an more active season.

Eye balling the charts (see Paul Homewood article linked below) the 50s seemed comparable reminding me of Joe Bastardi’s thoughts over the past few years. The current Weatherbell Hurricaine forecast for 2013 goes with this as well

March 30, 2013
A wild season is on the way, and the “major hit drought” on the US coast should end. In fact, multiple major hits are likely this year with the cold PDO, warm AMO decadal signal favoring the East Coast, as in the 1950s.

http://www.weatherbell.com/2013-Hurricane-Season-Forecast

Worth remembering when we get the Frankenstorm/CO2 caused it in the coming months.

h/t Paul Homewood

Plate Tectonics – Just a Theory

The popularity of plate tectonics arises from its seeming to explain major features of the ocean floor, but popularity is not a measure of scientific correctness. Science is a logical process, not a democratic process.

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As to why theories perpetuate is described later.

There is something fundamentally wrong with an institution accepting taxpayer money to conduct scientific research and at the same time allowing its faculty/employees to suppress advances in science with phony-baloney, made in secret reviews . But that is an every-day occurrence in American universities…Real scientists appreciate advances in science, as advances generally open the door to new discoveries. Science is about truth, not suppression, not misrepresentation, not to the scientific community and not to the general public.

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h/t Malaga Bay

“We are plagued by drought and science says, we must not accuse nature but man…”

The more things change the more they stay the same.
h/t Tallbloke

My Garden Pond

“… who, by altering the surface of the earth has changed the course of the atmosphere and thence the influence of the seasons.”  Antoine-Alexis Cadet de Vaux, “Observation sur la sécheresse actuelle, ses causes, et les moyens de prévenir la progression de ce fléau,” Moniteur Universel, 26 August 1800.

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Imagine What Would Happen If We Didn’t Have A Strong El Niño For 4 More Years

1883 pops up again.

Watts Up With That?

This is a cross post of my post titled El Niño-Southern Oscillation Then and Now.

I’m presenting this for those who look for patterns. I see it only as a curiosity—nothing more. I am not suggesting that future ENSO events will mimic those of the past, but…

El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices are used to monitor the strength, frequency and duration of El Niño and La Niña events. One of the commonly used indices is the sea surface temperature anomalies of an area in the east-central equatorial Pacific called the NINO3.4 region (5S-5N, 170W-120W). A blogger recently advised me in a comment of a curious agreement in the NINO3.4 data for two periods separated by more than 100 years. Thanks, Bob. That is, the sea surface temperature anomalies of the NINO3.4 region for the period of January 2004 to March 2013 are quite similar to those from January 1883…

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El Niño-Southern Oscillation Then and Now

Again 1883 comes up. Hmm.

Bob Tisdale - Climate Observations

I’m presenting this for those who look for patterns. I see it only as a curiosity—nothing more.  I am not suggesting that future ENSO events will mimic those of the past, but…

El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices are used to monitor the strength, frequency and duration of El Niño and La Niña events. One of the commonly used indices is the sea surface temperature anomalies of an area in the east-central equatorial Pacific called the NINO3.4 region (5S-5N, 170W-120W). A blogger recently advised me in a comment of a curious agreement in the NINO3.4 data for two periods separated by more than 100 years. Thanks, Bob.  That is, the sea surface temperature anomalies of the NINO3.4 region for the period of January 2004 to March 2013 are quite similar to those from January 1883 to March 1892. Refer to Figure 1, which presents NINO3.4 anomaly data for the two periods…

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1883 on ENSO

In response to the question below Bob Tisdale has looked at ENSO Analogues for ~SC14 (linked after jump)

Bob on April 22, 2013 at 11:56 pm

Dear Bob,In response to your post “ENSO 2013 – Boy or Girl?” at wattsupwiththat.com, I have been researching analogue ENSO sequences for this year. I found one, so thought you might like to expand on it (maybe another thought provoking post?).

Present: Monthly Nino 3.4 series Jan 2004 – March 2013
Analog: Monthly Nino 3.4 series Jan 1883 – March 1892

Will the present follow the analog series out to 1895?

http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2013/04/14/a-different-perspective-of-the-equatorial-pacific-and-enso-events/#comment-10855

1883 vs 2013

Found a comment I’d lost track of. A snippet first then the comment from 1 Jan in full.

Analogues of past hale cycles (i.e. ’47 ’69 ’91) suggest to me a back loaded winter lasting until equinox. 1883 had a cold March in CET and a cold March is ‘overdue’ not that it means anything but who knows? The MWW and SSW tagged to hit the polar vortex this month hint at the possibility emerging.

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Climate Change is Real…Snakeoil

global warming is not so much a scientific theory subject to empirical falsification as it is a political ideology that must be fiercely defended in defiance of every fact to the contrary. In the past few years we have been told that not only hot weather but cold weather is caused by global warming. The blizzards that struck the east coast of the US in 2010 were attributed to global warming. Every weather event–hot, cold, wet or dry–is said to be caused by global warming. The theory that explains everything explains nothing.

But remember don’t let anyone tell you that a Snakeoil salesman is a lying, cheating *******.