By Paul Homewood
It has been variously described as “The Storm of the Century”, “Unprecedented”, “Superstorm” and “A repeat of 1987”. I refer, of course, to the St Jude storm that passed through early this morning and is now headed off into the North Sea.
Let’s have a look at the impact, and see how it compared to other recent storms in the UK. We have not yet got confirmed figures from the Met Office, but it is unlikely they will be much different to the provisional data below.
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By Paul Homewood
According to the Telegraph:
The Met Office’s £30million supercomputer was able to predict the size and path of the St Jude’s Day storm four days before it had formed by using calculations from millions of sites around the world to simulate the weather.
The IBM machine, which is capable of 100 trillion calculations a second, predicted the storm after spotting two areas of turbulent weather over Canada and the United States which met in the western Atlantic forming one large low pressure system.
This is all very strange, because Jonathan Powell, of Vantage Weather Services was forecasting the “storm of the century” on Tuesday, 22nd October, which was six days before the storm hit. I was critical at the time, as the Daily Express report was clearly overhyped. Nevertheless, they got the basics right:
Jonathan Powell, forecaster for Vantage Weather Services…
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As the gap between its models and reality has grown, the IPCC has become more adamant that its conclusions are correct – rather than more cautious.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) claims to be a rational, scientific body. But when scientists worthy of the name are wrong, they admit it. The IPCC does the opposite.
Once you peel multiple layers off the global warming onion, you’re left with computer models. According to these models, the small amount of warming that results when humans emit CO2 into the atmosphere is supposed to be amplified by other factors. It isn’t the CO2 itself but this amplification that the IPCC believes will lead to dramatic rises in temperature and dangerous consequences.
But here’s the problem: even though the real world hasn’t behaved as expected, the IPCC continues to cling to its position with a fervour that can only be described as…
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it’s essential to understand that the notion of sustainability has been corrupted. Instead [of] encompassing the development of low impact sustainable ways of providing sufficient energy, water, shelter and other basic human needs to meet the demands of a growing population – which technology can achieve – it has been twisted into meaning that people must use less of everything. How can they be sure people will use less? By restricting supply (e.g. unreliable turbines instead of reliable coal and gas, no new reservoirs combined with water metering) and driving up prices to a level that many people cannot afford. Simple, and vicious.
It’s been documented and explained for years by Richard North and Christopher Booker. But those who have not seen their many warnings about what was in store for us as a result of policies, that so many people cheered for being ‘green’, might benefit from this very quick summary that Booker puts in his column today.
Two weeks ago, in a column headed “It’s showdown time for our insane green energy policies”, I observed that this is the moment when the roof is finally starting to fall in on a collective flight from reality that I have been reporting here for years.
But what few people yet realise is how far this catastrophic mess we are in was not only predictable, but has also been quite deliberately brought about, through the Government’s own policies.
Their central aim, though never openly explained, has been twofold. One leg has been…
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By Courtney Spamer
Francisco has made a sharp turn toward the northeast which will keep the center of the storm off the coast of Japan. However, it will still bring heavy rain and a risk of flooding to part of the nation.
Although the tropical storm has been following a track similar to deadly Typhoon Wipha from last week, Francisco will pass farther offshore and produce only a limited wind threat for eastern Japan.
The greatest threat from Francisco will be the heavy rainfall that will continue into Saturday before ending as Francisco is pulled farther northeast into the open Pacific Ocean.
Satellite image of Tropical Storm Francisco and Typhoon Lekima near Japan on Friday, courtesy of UW-CIMSS.
Thus far, the heaviest rainfall has occurred across Shikoku and southern Honshu, where many locations have received 150-250 mm (6-10 inches) of rainfall. One of the hardest hit areas is…
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Like all politicians they spin the message – but hey so can we and despite the fiddling the data most people are seeing the change to cooling first hand. It will be interesting how these press releases go in the future when their statements will look increasingly facile and more detatched from reality than they already are!
By Paul Homewood
NSIDC have grudgingly admitted that Arctic minimum sea ice extent has recovered from last year’s low.
(I think the headline says everything you need to know about the politicisation of NSIDC – “Avoids last year’s record low” – an unaware reader would assume that this year had just scraped above it, rather than exceed it by 50%).
But back to the point! We often hear that the loss of ice in the Arctic is of more significance than the gains in the Antarctic. As NSIDC lead scientist, Ted Scambos, says:
“The tiny gain in Antarctica’s ice is an interesting puzzle for scientists. The rapid loss of ice in the Arctic should be ringing alarm bells for everyone”
But why is this so? NSIDC explain:
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UPDATE 24-10-13: Michele links a post which confirms his observations and predictions: Looks like Europe might be in for another very cold winter.
This article is a copy in English from the Italian blog of Dr Michele Casati, http://daltonsminima.altervista.org by kind permission. I’ve paraphrased some of the auto-translation but left most of it as giving a better taste of the original writing – Tim.
The original La corrente del golfo oggi from 26th March 2012
The Gulf Stream today
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