The Conspiracy of the Like Minded-truth in data as big lie

My presumption is that this graphic was the product of what I call a “conspiracy of the like minded,” what you get in an organization that has successfully purged itself, or has self-selected out, any really dissenting opinion – this is actually very common.
So, so true.
Thank you.

The Coraline Meme

Update – I’ve added a new figure Fig. 4a below, a version of the AR5 SOD Fig. 1.4 with the “grey swoosh” redacted.

Today, after giving my opinion on the subject of Syria, my sister told me I was being, “Negative, pessimistic, and paranoid” – all possibly true – but being a scientist I am driven to that position by the apprehension of the evidence.

Later in the day I came across the above graphic from the UK MetOffice’s 2014 Decadal Forecast over at Tallbloke’s Talkshop in an article entitled MET- Office: New four year ‘decadal’ forecast spaghetti.  This is what fellow WordPressian Tallbloke had to say:

Ed Hawkins tweeted up  the latest offering from the MET-Office this morning. It’s a “Decadal forecast”, which runs from now to the beginning (not the end, Ed) of 2018. Stop tittering at the back there! But compounding matters, the ‘forecast’ is…

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The Moon’s Orbit is Wrong, It Can Change a Lot, And Tides Will Too

A great thought provoking read. Thank you.

Musings from the Chiefio

The basic “issue” here is simple: We don’t really know what the moon has done in the past, because we don’t know what it is doing now; but we do know it could have made much stronger tides in the past, so could do that again. We also know that present tides are about 1/2 the total overturning force bringing cold deep water to the surface, so we also know that changes in tide forces could and would have major impacts on how cold it gets, and / or when ice sheets break up. So much for “settled science”…

Before anyone gets up in arms over my saying the moon’s orbit is wrong: It wasn’t me! See:

https://duckduckgo.com/?q=moon+orbit+wrong

Moon Orbit Wrong Cornell University – YouTube
Moon Orbit Wrong Cornell University associate Lorenzo Lorio, Has Researched i’m sure because of public outcry & observations made by You, my Friends, Visitors &…

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A Remarkable Lunar Paper and Numbers on Major Standstill

Musings from the Chiefio

Yesterday we had a sort of a review of the lunar postings so far and a look at how the orbital changes are not quite as expected. That the lunar orbit is “wrong” – per some folks. Also a touch on the history of tides and that some of the very earliest writings are claiming much stronger tides than at present. There was also a link to a WUWT article about about the way tides are much larger during certain alignments of sun, moon, and earth with particular orbital conditions (perigee). Including calculations that tides then could be significantly larger. Between 1.5 x and 2 times present. This would tend to wash more warm water under the North Pole ice cap and help break up the ice. It would also cause large changes in ocean mixing of water levels and change both ocean surface temperatures, and through them, air temperatures.

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Lord Monckton: Letter to Martin Rasmussen of Copernicus Publications

Tallbloke's Talkshop

A week ago,  Christopher Monckton wrote a letter to Martin Rasmussen at Copernicus Publishing, to protest the preremptory closure of journal ‘Pattern Recognition in Physics’, following its publication of our special issue on ‘Pattern in solar variability, their planetary origin and terrestrial impacts’. No reply has been received, and so true to the timeline set out in the latter, he has asked me to publish it here at the talkshop. This document pulls no punches in highlighting the hypocrisy of those who seek to control scientific debate through censorship. Considering the publishers name, and the fact that our research was initiated by Johannes Kepler four centuries ago, a rich irony is in play here.

UPDATE 30-1-2014: Jo Nova has posted an article on the relaunch of PRP proposed by Lord Monckton

lordm-head
Dear Mr. Rasmussen,

Closure and reopening of the learned journal Pattern Recognition in Physics

My kind friend Professor Niklas…

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Antarctic Sea Ice Extent On Track For Record High Minimum – Jan 28 2014

sunshine hours

Antarctic Sea Ice Extent  is very much on track to have the highest minimum in the modern satellite era.

The highest minimum was in 2008 at 3.69176 million sq km on day 51, The 2nd highest was in 2013 at 3.65040 million sq km on day 50.

The earliest minimum was day 43 in 1994. And the latest minimum was day 65 in 1986.

Antarctic Sea Ice Extent as of Jan 27 2014 was 1 million sq km above the 1981-2010 mean and 160,000 sq km above 2008.

Day 27 was the 10th daily record of the year.

Antarctic_Sea_Ice_Extent_Zoomed_2014_Day_27_1981-2010

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Mild Winters – A Sting in the Tail?

Undoubtedly this appears a very warm winter with a CET of +1.7C for Dec +2.1C for Jan (as of 27th) with an average of +1.9C so far. Whilst the Jan figure may drop a small amount with easterly winds in the coming days, the Atlantic looks set to return into Feb with a mild and wet prognosis likely, although cold incursions cannot be excluded further afield,  however a deep cold spell – at least in the ‘winter’ months looks unlikely. However, looking back at similar periods during times of low solar activity, a sting in the tail looks quite possible from a late cold spring or what seem a stronger signal, a ferocious and prolonged winter the following season…with some substantial storms and dodgy summers thrown into the mix.

Note: all information sourced from http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/wxevents.htm

Early-mid winter 1661/62 A mild winter (second one in a row), and to judge by some accounts (see below), a wet one too (unlike the previous winter across the southeast of Britain – it was apparently wet over north & west Britain). Using the CET record (to nearest degC only at this early stage), the DJF mean CET was 5.7degC, or roughly 2C above the all-series average.According to Evelyn .. “there having falln so greate raine without any frost or seasonable cold …”; suggests mild, cyclonic, wet & windy regime much of the winter until at least the middle of January (1662). Reported at the time as … “like May or June”.

Winters 1662/63 to 1666/67 Three of the five winters in this period were cold, with severe frosts. It is claimed that skating was introduced into England during the winter of 1662/63 and that the King (Charles II) watched this new sport on the frozen Thames. 

December 1695 to February 1696 With the exceptions noted below, it was a mild winter; using the CET record, the value averaged over the three months December, January & February was 4.7degC (based on monthly data to nearest half-degree C), which is roughly +1C anomaly on the whole-series mean & close to what we would expect in the ‘warmed’ modern-day era. It was also probably a wet season, at least up to early February (Evelyn). An interval of snow / frost in the London area after mild, dark misty weather and before a long wet spell which lasted until February 1696. Intense frost (London/South?) on 26th January, temperature 9 degrees (?F) below zero in London. (in degC this would be: -23degC.)

November 1696 13th: Mostly fair weather, but with severe frosts near London, set in 13th to 20th after frequent stormy winds and rain since 18th September

1696/97(Winter) 1696/97 A severe winter. The overall CET value for December, January & February was=1.3degC (monthly data to nearest 0.5C), which represents a rough anomaly of -2.5C on the all-series mean, and more than -3C on modern-day values. As the note below makes clear, the cold persisted throughout February, and Evelyn notes that there was also snow; soldiers in the armies and garrison towns were frozen to death at their posts. 11th December: East wind brought in spell of snowy weather lasting until February 1697.West wind 27th to 29th December brought more snow but did not break the long frost near London. 8th January: NE gale renewed the frost ( after brief intermission with rain and drizzle in the London area 6th to 8th ).
February 1697 was a severe month in a severe winter in a decade of severe winters. CET=+ 0.5degC (at this point, the series is the nearest half-a-degree C only). [c.f. with the 1961-90 mean of 3.8degC.] Not a ‘record-breaker’, but certainly colder than we have become used to.

1698/1699 (Winter) Possibly a very wet season, at least in the London/SE area. Also mild, with no extended spells of cold/snowy weather, again at least in the London/Home Counties area.
February 19th (OSP): Possibly a major storm causing damage & death due to fall of trees etc. This would fit in with the idea of a markedly disturbed, cyclonic, mild winter

1724/5 April 1725 25th: beginning of exceptional prolonged wet spell with winds between NW & SW (after a mild winter 1724/25). Rain fell in London on at least 60 out of 75 days between this date and the 8th July.
what followed:
1725 Summer Cold summer. Notably cold by CET series. The CET value was 13.1degC, over 2C below the LTA in that series (began 1659), and (as at 2004), the coldest in that series. No grapes (ripened?) at Richmond-upon-Thames (then in a semi-rural Surrey) 1725/26 Severe winter (London/South)

1738/39 A notably mild winter (Dec/Jan/Feb). Using the CET series, the average was 5.6degC, an approximate all-series anomaly of +2C. CET January 1739 Central Scotland
What followed:
October 1739 8th: Beginning of historic winter: East wind set in with frequent frosts.
1778/9 – warm but dry winter followed by 1779/80(Winter) Severe winter (London/South). Coldest winter in the series 1764/65 to 1962/63 at Edinburgh, Scotland.Using the CET series for lowland England, the anomaly for the three ‘standard’ winter months of December, January & February was -2.3C on the all-series mean. January 1780 was particularly cold with a CET value of -0.9degC (-4C anomaly).

1790 (April) After a notably mild winter…’winter’ weather set in with a vengeance in Scotland. Intense cold with frequent hail / snow, with snowfall in the hills more like January than April. Great deal of snow on the 12th with intense cold. Similar on the 15th, with further snowfall in Scotland.

1821/1822(Winter) Notably mild. The CET value was 5.8degC, some 2C above the all-series mean & in the top dozen-or-so mild winters in this long established series.Significant flooding along the Thames over the months of December & January: hardly surprising, given the excess of rainfall in the second-half of 1821, with November & December (EWP) taken together seeing a figure of some 150-160% of the long term average rainfall. Floods were reported from Henley, Maidenhead & Kingston-upon-Thames. (LW)This winter was often stormy according to Lamb [see entry against February, below], and as noted above, was notably mild.
followed by
1822/23(Winter) The notably mild winter of 1821/22 (see above) was followed by a notably cold winter! The 3-month average for this season was 1.4degC, representing an anomaly of over -2C on the all-series mean.(CET). During this severe winter, there was much ice in the Thames at Greenwich by the 30th December.

1845/1846(Winter) Notably mild winter in Scotland. (c.f. to ‘severe’ winter conditions much further south e.g. Paris). The generally mild weather lasted from December to early March, when ‘winter’ set in. The mild conditions were also reflected in the CET record, where the value was 5.8degC (roughly +2C), placing the winter
followed by
1846/1847(Winter) The winter of 1846/47 was noted for severe frosts and heavy rains across southern England. Using the CET record, December had a value of 0.5degC, at least 3.5C below the all-series mean; January and February anomalies were between -1 and -1.5C. The winter as a whole ranked within the ‘top 10%’ of coldest winters in this long established series. [CET] { Rainfall, using the EWP series, doesn’t appear to be extreme (December relatively dry), but this series may not reflect local conditions. } On the Southampton & Dorchester Railway, then under construction, working across the soils of the New Forest proved to be very difficult. In a single week, a total of 13 horses became stuck in the mud and had to be destroyed.

Churchill polar bears eat more caribou and geese now than in 1968 because there are more caribou and geese, new research reveals

polarbearscience

The press release (pdf here) issued by the American Museum of Natural History (AMNH) a few days ago, regarding several recent papers on polar bear consumption of terrestrial foods around Churchill, Manitoba (Western Hudson Bay), left a lot to be desired in terms of relaying accurate information.

Recent research on polar bear diets by Robert Rockwell and Linda Gormezano, it says, suggests that an increase in the consumption of caribou and snow geese since 1968 is a sign that the polar bears are nutritionally stressed due to recent sea ice changes in spring (blamed on global warming) but may be adapting by changing their summer/fall diet.

As the AMNH press release puts it:

polar bears in the warming Arctic are turning to alternate food sources.”

However, the AMNH press release fails to mention – as the papers it publicizes certainly do – thatWestern Hudson Bay populations…

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Nils-Axel Morner: An Unbelievable Decision

Tallbloke's Talkshop

An Unbelievable Decision
Nils-Axel MÖRNER
Handling editor of the Special Issue of PRP

wpid-PRP-Censured.jpgThe idea that the planetary motions affect and control the solar variability is old, but in the stage of an unproven hypothesis. In recent years major advancements have occurred and in 2013, it seemed that time was ripe for a major, multi-authored, reinvestigation. Therefore, a Special Issue of Pattern Recognition in Physics was devoted to: “Pattern in solar variability, their planetary origin and terrestrial impacts”.

The volume includes 12 separate research papers and General Conclusions, co-authored by 19 prominent scientists. Indeed, they agreed that the driving factor of solar variability must emerge from the planetary beat on the Sun, and by that its emission of luminosity and Solar Wind both factors of which affect the Earth-Moon system.

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State of emergency declared after 6.1 magnitude earthquake strikes Greek Island

The Extinction Protocol

Greece Jan 26, 2014
January 27, 2014GREECESchools were ordered closed and a state of emergency was declared on the Greek island of Kefalonia on Monday after an earthquake damaged homes and injured at least seven people. Hundreds of the island’s residents slept in their cars after a magnitude 5.8 temblor struck near the town of Lixouri on the western Greek island on Sunday, and was followed by dozens of aftershocks as powerful as magnitude 5.2, according to the Institute of Geodynamics in Athens. Seismologists noted it was too soon to tell whether the Sunday temblor, which the U.S. Geological Survey listed as having a 6.1 magnitude, was the main earthquake or whether a stronger one might strike in the following days. “We need 48 hours to say with 99 percent certainty that this was the main quake,” Thanassis Ganas, head of research at the Athens Geodynamic Institute, said on Skai…

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